For more information regarding, the process of how I come to decide these ratings, please check out last week’s’s introductory post. Below you’ll see my rankings for each of the individuals competing at nationals, with the exception of one but I’ll explain shortly. These are my projected NCAA individuals and it’s not necessarily the best 248 runners in the country. Due to injuries or shortcomings at certain meets, sometimes we see cases of runners that are very good but don’t make it to the big dance. It happens.

If you have any questions or complaints, tweet them at me: @Wood_Report. Last week, I had a lot of fun taking your questions on where I projected your teams to finish at your respective conference and regionals. Let’s do it again. Ask me any NCAA Division I cross country runner and I will tell you where I have you projected to place at conference and regionals again.

First thing that I’d like to get out of the way – I mean ZERO disrespect to anyone with these projections. My idea is not to make anyone feel bad. If I put you in the 200 Club or last, it has no indication about how I view you as a human being. I just need to put someone there.

If you missed last week’s team rankings, they can be found here.

And now for the full rankings (except for BYU). If you’re viewing this on mobile, you may want to give it a try on a laptop so that you can see the teams and ratings for each runner. We’re not super tech savvy so sorry!

248	Bobby	Browning	Indiana	6
247	Justin	Weinmeister	Colorado State	6.5
246	Nicholas	Golebiowski	Georgetown	7
245	Ellis	Coon	Tulsa	7
244	Dylan	Scarsone	Georgetown	7
243	Spencer	Brown	Georgetown	7
242	Mark	Robertson	Ole Miss	7
241	Christian	Alvarado	Georgetown	7
240	Isaac	Dobos	Tulsa	7
239	Stanley	Limoh	UL-Lafayette-South Central	7
238	Waleed	Suliman	Ole Miss	7.5
237	Tristan	Peloquin	Portland	7.5
236	Steve	Correa	California	7.5
235	Shane	Streich	Minnesota	7.5
234	Parker	Scott	Ole Miss	7.5
233	Nathan	Burnand	Michigan State	7.5
232	Mike	Marsella	Virginia	7.5
231	Joseph	Murphy	Indiana	7.5
230	Jordan	Hewitt	Michigan	7.5
229	Wolfgang	Beck	Princeton	7
228	Joey	Duerr	Minnesota	7.5
227	Jackson	Marshall	UCLA	7.5
226	Isaac	Akers	Tulsa	7.5
225	Isaac	Harding	Michigan	7.5
224	Gabriel	Haughey	Portland	7.5
223	Evan	Ferlic	Minnesota	7.5
222	Ethan	Moehn	Arkansas	7.5
221	Derek	Wiebke	Minnesota	7.5
220	Daniel	Sims	Michigan State	7.5
219	Billy	Bund	Michigan	7.5
218	Austin	Benoit	Michigan	7.5
217	Andrew	Burkhardt	California	7.5
216	Andrew	Tario	Iona	7.5
215	Alex	Corbett	Virginia	7.5
214	Matthew	Novak	Virginia	7.5
213	Jacob	Pickle	Texas	7.5
212	Brent	Musselman	Virginia Tech	7.5
211	Brock	Baker	Furman	7.5
210	John	Rice	Texas	7.5
209	Steven	Sum	Princeton	7
208	Jesse	Hersha	Michigan State	7.5
207	Connor	Hendrickson	Texas	7.5
206	Robert	Uhr	Texas	7.5
205	Ryan	Smeeton	Oklahoma State	7.5
204	Liam	Kennell	Southern Utah	6
203	Viraj	Deokar	Princeton	7.5
202	Derek	Gutierrez	Ole Miss	7.5
201	Myles	Smith	UCLA	7.5
200	Carson	Hume	Colorado State	7.5
199	Josef	Andrews	Iowa State	7.5
198	Ryan	Robinson	Michigan State	7.5
197	Kevin	James	Syracuse	7.5
196	Colin	Abert	Penn State -Mid Atlantic	8
195	Reuben	Kiprono	Portland	7.5
194	Tibebu	Proctor	Washington	8
193	Jeremy	Spiezio	Princeton	7.5
192	Tanner	Norman	Iowa State	8
191	Andrew	Marston	Villanova -Mid-Atlantic	8
190	George	Espino	Southern Utah	6.5
189	Mason	Coppi	Furman	8
188	Kyle	Mau	Indiana	8
187	Christian	Martin	Colorado	7.5
186	Kyle	Levermore	Arkansas	8
185	John Carter	Blunt	UCLA	8
184	Istvan	Szogi	Florida State	8
183	Ethan	Gonzales	Colorado	8
182	Diego	Zarate	Virginia Tech	8
181	Connor	Olson	Minnesota	8
180	Cameron	Tu	California	8
179	Michael	Hall	Florida State	7.5
178	Blaise	Ferro	Northern Arizona	8
177	Andrew	Gaiser	Virginia Tech	8
176	Addison	DeHaven	Boise State	8
175	Mahmoud	Moussa	Washington	8
174	Brian	Zabilski	Columbia -Northeast	8
173	Jack	Van Scoter	Georgetown	8
172	Kai	Benedict	California	7.5
171	Luis	Martinez	Oklahoma State	7.5
170	Brandon	Allen	Iona	8
169	Josh	Brickell	Furman	8
168	Alex	Rogers	Texas	8
167	Jac	Hopkins	Iona	8
166	Austin	Del Rosso	Tulsa	8
165	Morgan	Beadlescomb	Michigan State	8
164	Toby	Hardwick	Iowa State	8
163	Stuart	Robertson	Virginia Tech	8
162	Rhys	Park	Boise State	8
161	Caleb	Pottorff	Florida State	7.5
160	Luis	Grijalva	Northern Arizona	8
159	Henry	Pearce	Tulsa	8
158	John	Lawson	California	8
157	Charlie	Lawrence	Minnesota	8
156	Garek	Bielaczyk	Texas	8
155	William	Paulson	Princeton	8
154	Dan	Curts	Iowa State	8
153	Johannes	Motschmann	Iona	8
152	David	Barney	Florida State	8
151	Anthony	Laurita	Colorado State	8
150	Stanley	Linton	Florida State	7
149	Chandler	Austin	Boise State	7.5
148	Sean	Burke	Boston College -Northeast	8
147	Adam	Roderique	Tulsa	8
146	Benjamin	Preisner	Tulsa	8
145	Ryan	Thomas	Columbia -Northeast	8.5
144	Oliver	Hoare	Wisconsin	8
143	Noah	Kauppila	Princeton	8
142	Kyle	Burdick	South Dakota State -Midwest	8.5
141	Kevin	Monogue	Penn -Mid Atlantic	8.5
140	Eric	Hamer	Colorado State	7
139	Michael	Callegari	Florida State	7.5
138	Ben	Veatch	Indiana	8
137	Andrew	Johnston	Air Force -Mountain	8.5
136	Andrew	Gardner	Washington	8.5
135	Zack	Snider	Wisconsin	8.5
134	Talon	Hull	Washington	8.5
133	Nathan	Rodriguez	Iowa State	8.5
132	Micah	Beller	Michigan	8.5
131	Kyle	DuVall	Indiana	8.5
130	Alec	Haines	Oklahoma State	8
129	Eduardo	Herrera	Colorado	8.5
128	Connor	Lane	Stanford	8.5
127	Trevor	Gilley	Ole Miss	8
126	Caleb	Webb	Portland	8.5
125	Alex	Ostberg	Stanford	8.5
124	Daniel	Jaskowak	Virginia Tech	8.5
123	Paul	Luevano	Boston U. -Northeast	8.5
122	Ryan	Manahan	Ole Miss	8.5
121	Johnathan	Stevens	Washington	8.5
120	Neil	Gourley	Virginia Tech	8.5
119	Fred	Huxham	Washington	8.5
118	Alex	Riba	Texas A&M -South Central	8.5
117	Conor	Lundy	Princeton	8
116	Matthew	Wright	Southern Utah	8
115	Nick	Hauger	Portland	8.5
114	Trent	Brendel	California	8.5
113	Colin	Burke	UCLA	8.5
112	Amos	Bartelsmeyer	Georgetown	8.5
111	Garrett	Reynolds	UCLA	8.5
110	Noah	Affolder	Syracuse	8.5
109	Cory	Glines	Northern Arizona	8.5
108	Jeff	Thies	Portland	8.5
107	Steven	Fahy	Stanford	8.5
106	Justine	Kiprotich	Michigan State	7.5
105	Kevin	Mulcaire	Oklahoma State	8
104	Aidan	Reed	Southern Utah	7.5
103	Miler	Haller	Boise State	8
102	Tanner	Hinkle	Furman	8
101	Jeremy	Coughler	Indiana	8.5

Go to the next page to view the top 100 and the analysis behind the individual rankings

100	Ryan	Forsyth	Colorado	8.5
99	Euan	Makepeace	Butler -Great Lakes	8.5
98	Finn	Gessner	Wisconsin	8.5
97	Aidan	Tooker	Syracuse	8.5
96	Levi	Thomet	Oregon	8.5
95	Clark	Ruiz	Michigan State	8.5
94	Andrew	Rafla	Boise State	9
93	Thomas	Madden	Virginia	8.5
92	Bryce	Millar	Indiana	8.5
91	Cooper	Teare	Oregon	8.5
90	Zach	Long	Tennessee -South	9
89	Hlynur	Andresson	Eastern Michigan	8.5
88	Timothy	McGowan	Penn State -Mid Atlantic	9
87	Jacob	Bilvado	Air Force -Mountain	9
86	Lachlan	Cook	Virginia	8.5
85	Sam	Worley	Texas	8
84	Jaret	Carpenter	Purdue- Great Lakes	8.5
83	Jacob	Allen	San Francisco -West	9
82	Gilbert	Kigen	Alabama -South	9
81	Antony	Kosgei	UTEP -Mountain	9
80	Reed	Brown	Oregon	8.5
79	Emmanuel	Rotich	Tulane-South Central	9
78	Brian	Barraza	Houston- South Central	9
77	Olin	Hacker	Wisconsin	8.5
76	Cerake	Geberkidane	Oklahoma State	9
75	Noah	Schutte	Portland	9
74	James	West	Oregon	9
73	Michael	Ward	Bradley	9
72	Troy	Reeder	Furman	8.5
71	Aaron	Templeton	Furman	8.5
70	Aaron	Baumgarten	Michigan	9
69	Travis	Neuman	Oregon	8.5
68	Garrett	Corcoran	California	9
67	Seth	Hirsch	Wisconsin	8
66	Steven	Cross	Florida State	8
65	Sylvester	Barus	Oklahoma State	9
64	Liam	Dee	Iona	9
63	Josh	Collins	Southern Utah	8.5
62	Geordie	Beamish	Northern Arizona	9
61	Troy	Fraley	Gonzaga- West	9
60	Bryce	Stroede	Oakland- Great Lakes	9
59	Austen	Dalquist	Arkansas	8.5
58	Azaria	Kirwa	Liberty- Southeast	9
57	Michael	Vennard	Boise State	9
56	Frank	Lara	Furman	8
55	Obsa	Ali	Minnesota	9
54	Gabe	Arias-Sheridan	St. Mary’s (Cal.) – West	8.5
53	Jonathan	Green	Georgetown	9.5
52	Cameron	Griffith	Arkansas	9
51	Ben	Flanagan	Michigan	9
50	Sean	Tobin	Ole Miss	9
49	Joe	Hardy	Wisconsin	8.5
48	Peter	Seufer	Virginia Tech	9
47	Thomas	Ratcliffe	Stanford	9.5
46	Chase	Weaverling	Virginia	9
45	Andrew	Jordan	Iowa State	8.5
44	Yusuke	Uchikoshi	Boise State	9
43	Iliass	Aouani	Syracuse	9
42	Daniel	De La Torre	UCLA	9.5
41	Cole	Rockhold	Colorado State	9
40	Kasey	Knevelbaard	Southern Utah	9
39	Brent	Demarest	Virginia	9
38	Sam	Wharton	Stanford	9
37	Philo	Germano	Syracuse	9
36	Michael	Williams	Washington State -West	9
35	Arsen’e	Guillorel	Samford -South	9.5
34	Thomas	Pollard	Iowa State	8.5
33	Jacob	Thomson	Kentucky- Southeast	9.5
32	Jacob	Choge	Middle Tennessee State- South	9.5
31	Tanner	Anderson	Oregon	9
30	Robert	Brandt	UCLA	9.5
29	Zach	Perrin	Colorado	9.5
28	Gilbert	Kirui	Iona	9.5
27	Jack	Keelan	Stanford	9.5
26	Grant	Fischer	Colorado State	9.5
25	Mike	Tate	Southern Utah	9.5
24	Amon	Kemboi	Campbell- Southeast	9.5
23	Andrew	Ronoh	Arkansas	9.5
22	Chartt	Miller	Iona	9.5
21	Andy	Trouard	Northern Arizona	9.5
20	Lawrence	Kipkoech	Campbell- Southeast	9.5
19	Jacob	Burcham	Oklahoma -Midwest	9.5
18	Colby	Gilbert	Washington	9.5
17	Colin	Bennie	Syracuse	9.5
16	Alfred	Chelanga	Alabama- South	9.5
15	Matthew	Maton	Oregon	9.5
14	Joe	Klecker	Colorado	9.5
13	Alex	George	Arkansas	9.5
12	John	Dressel	Colorado	9.5
11	Tyler	Day	Northern Arizona	9.5
10	Dillon	Maggard	Utah State- Mountain	9.5
9	Jonah	Koech	UTEP- Mountain	9.5
8	Jerrell	Mock	Colorado State	9.5
7	Hassan	Abdi	Oklahoma State	9.5
6	Matthew	Baxter	Northern Arizona	9.5
5	Jack	Bruce	Arkansas	9.5
4	Grant	Fisher	Stanford	10
3	Morgan	McDonald	Wisconsin	10
2	Vincent	Kiprop	Alabama- South	10
1	Justyn	Knight	Syracuse	10

Why is Justyn Knight our top dog?

I’m a Justyn Knight guy, I think when you can make the world championship final in the 5,000m, it opens your eyes to another level. It’s kind of like when a high schooler watches the college national championships for cross country or track and they make the realization that they want to be that guy. Justyn Knight is that guy. Once you get to the college level, if you’re really good then you can look toward making the Olympics or World Championships. Justyn has not only been on that elite level but he’s shown that he can hang with the big boys at that level. I think he’s at another echelon than the rest of the field just based off of what I saw at worlds.

How confident are you of Vincent Kiprop?

His 10K PR of 28:19 is impressive but it’s more about the way that he ran that 10,000m at Mt. SAC. I watched it live and he was able to do that off of training alone. He was training at the Division II level with training partners that maybe weren’t pushing him to be his best. Now, he’s got the chance to run at Alabama with two other Kenyans who are probably pretty darn good. So he could rise up to be that next guy behind Knight. I kind of peg him as a Kennedy Kithuka-type. Kennedy was at an NAIA school before arriving at Texas Tech. More resources and opportunities helped him get to the top and so I see a similar case where that can play a factor and Kiprop could challenge Knight for the throne.

Morgan McDonald can still close the gap for No. 1

The hard thing about comparing cross country to track is that there’s never a direct crossover but you have to assume that if you can run under 13:20 for 5,000m then you’ll probably also be one of the best guys in the country, right? I lump him, Knight, Kiprop and Grant Fisher together but I just think that Knight is a shade better. They’re all really close. They’re the best four guys and for now, my heart tells me that I’m putting him at No. 3. Anything can happen between now and Louisville for me to change my mind.

Who is the top freshman?

As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, I won’t include BYU in these rankings and projections for personal reasons and to avoid any bias, but I will share a quick update. Casey Clinger has fit the part in his first few weeks of training but we’ll see how he does in his first meet. I will preface that in the list above, I will always be ridiculously conservative with freshman until I can actually see that they can run 8K. There is a significant difference between being a good high school miler and a good 5K guy and then a good 8K guy. You could be a good miler and still be a good 5K guy but it’s not an automatic that they’re going to succeed in the 8K. I’ve been really conservative with the incoming true freshman. I look forward to getting proven wrong really early and I’ll make some tweaks based on what I’ve seen.

What About Rory?

OK. So now, you’re curious about where I’d put Rory Linkletter. He was second in the NCAA 10,000m final in June. Rory has had a great summer. I have a lot of faith in his ability. He’s definitely a player. In fact, I would assume that people probably don’t realize how talented and how good he is.

The All-American Cut-off

Kasey Knevelbaard, Brent Demarest, Sam Wharton and Philo Germano sit on the last spots for All-American right now but the spots from 41 to 100 is really down to who is capable of closing on that day. I think the top 4 are pretty much listed. The difference between No. 5 and 10 is pretty small. The difference between 10 and 25 is pretty minimal. The difference between 25 and 40 is a little bit of a gap. I think the gap between 40th and 100th last year may have been around 15 seconds. It’s a small number. The difference is who has enough left in the tank to collect some scalps at the end.

Banking on a breakout from…

I think no one really got to see what Dillon Maggard of Utah State was really capable of because he had an unfortunate regionals race last year where it didn’t come together. He is very good. I’ve seen him here in Utah on a regular basis. He probably doesn’t get the hype that he deserves. I know he had a good summer of training. He’s a guy that can sneak into the Top 10 and maybe even run sub-13:30 on the track for 5,000m. He’s already got sub-four mile wheels but he’s starting to build that base and aerobic capacity. He’s going to show out.

Who May Have Been Knocked Down a Bit

Colin Bennie is at No. 18. He’s someone who has been better than that but I do think that the field has gotten a little bit better. This might be one of the better Top 10 fields that we’ve had in a while. I know we had Edward Cheserek and Patrick Tiernan recently but 1-6 is pretty dang deep this year. Joe Klecker, John Dressel and Jerrell Mock are studs but they’re also impacted by the likes of Vincent Kiprop or how well Morgan McDonald has been running.

Austen Dalquist at No. 59 is a major key

In last week’s rankings, we mentioned how close the team title may be between Syracuse, Arkansas and NAU. I picked Arkansas as my No. 1 team. Dalquist is at No. 59 now but he could be in the mid 60s for Arkansas to clinch that. I think Geordie Beamish needs to be in a similar spot for NAU. In order to win the national championship, I think you need about three All-Americans and your fifth guy in the 60s to 70s range, you have a good chance.

OK, I messed up

Before you start ripping me on Twitter, I will recognize some of my mistakes. I didn’t even put Festus Lagat in the field and he’s probably an All-American for Iowa State so I’ll change that in my next rankings. He will be a factor. At the same time, a lot of people are sipping the Thomas Ratcliffe Kool Aid. I think he could move up a few spots higher than I have him. He’s the type of guy that I’m just waiting to see one more race to certify that he’s a bonafide stud. I’m never one to jump on a bandwagon too fast. I’ll stick to those who are more tried and true but that’s not always the best case.

Sorry Bobby Browning

Well actually, there’s good news and bad news here. Ever since I finalized and submitted these, I changed my mind and decided that Indiana isn’t going to make the meet. So the good news is that you won’t be in last. The bad news is that your team won’t be at nationals. I’m putting Washington State in as my last team.

In all honesty, when I make these predictions and projections I realize that someone has to get last. If you’re in the 200’s, I like to call them the 200 Club. Basically, you’re there because maybe you’re just hanging onto that seventh spot on a team that just barely got into nationals or something bad happened to you. Usually the 255th guy is someone that you don’t want to pinhole as dead last. It could be a 100-level guy that had something unfortunate occur in the middle of the race.

I know Spencer Brown is near last. That’s what’s hard. We have to pick someone to put there. Trust me, I don’t individually say, ‘He STINKS. I’m going to put him here.’ I give everyone a rating and kind of judge from there. Anyone from 180 to 255 is still a pretty talented guy to even get to nationals.

I can see why some others just post their top 50 as opposed to the entire meet. They might be afraid of making someone feel bad. I’m not trying to make anyone feel bad. I’m just trying to predict the meet to the best of abilities. So my message to the 200 Club, PROVE ME WRONG.

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That’s all for now, if you have any questions about certain teams or individuals, please tweet at me @Wood_Report. I’ll respond. If you want to know where your respective school is projected to finish at its conference or regional meet, hit me up. Let’s make cross country fun. Send any longer inquiries or hate mail over to citiusmag@gmail.com