2017 NCAA Division I Indoor Championships: Projections, predictions and contest

By Scott Olberding

March 9, 2017


With the NCAA Division I Indoor Championships kicking off on Friday, the running nation’s collective eye will turn to College Station, Texas. Citius Mag’s friend, Jonathon Bermudez, sent his predictions over.

Below is a breakdown of them men’s team competition, outlining how many scoring opportunities each school has, along with the projected finish score:

[iframe src=”https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W3phxKBlMjBlmAD__9K8OAnRN_JHLaGZXRU6pYyrkJw/pubchart?oid=1445574522&format=interactive” width=”100%”]

Here is the same chart, presented for the women’s team trophy hunt:

[iframe src=”https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W3phxKBlMjBlmAD__9K8OAnRN_JHLaGZXRU6pYyrkJw/pubchart?oid=1663941468&format=interactive” width=”100%”]

As you can see, the Oregon women are the heavy favorites with more scoring opportunities and more projected points. Jonathon created the projections starting with the descending list for each event with some tweaking for known factors. For instance, he has selected Justyn Knight over Ed Cheserek in the 3,000 meter race as Cheserek will already have a 5,000 meter race and distance medley relay in his legs from Friday. Obviously there is some subjectivity here, but starting with a straight-forward methodology and tweaking for known factors is not the worst way to predict races.

Here are Jonathon’s picks for the men’s and women’s individual events, which dictate his team predictions.

Here comes the fun part.

Think you have a better shot at predicting the outcome of this weekend’s collegiate races? Print one of these sheets off (google sheet or .pdf) and play along. Email your predictions before the meet starts to citiusmag@gmail.com and if you beat Jonathon and everyone else we will send a small prize your way.

Scott Olberding

Full-time accountant, amateur marathoner and statistics editor for Citius Mag. Focused on creating arithmetic visualization and writing narrative for data-centric athletic ideas. Founding member of the JBAC and University of Portland Alumnus. Hosted Paul Snyder on his recruiting trip to UP, taking him to an Astronomy class. Although Paul did not commit, they have since become great friends.