How to watch: Coverage kicks off on ESPNU at 10 a.m. ET on Saturday, November 22 with the women’s 6K at 10:20 a.m. and the men’s 10K at 11:10 a.m.

Leading into the NCAA Championships, we tapped our XC guru Isaac Wood to lay out the case for and against some of the top contenders. You can catch all of his commentary on the CITIUS MAG Podcast previewing Saturday’s race. More topics discussed on the podcast include: Is this finally the year Habtom Samuel secures an NCAA XC individual title? Will BYU freshman Jane Hedengren cap off a dream season and dethrone defending champion Doris Lemngole of Alabama?

WOMEN’S CHAMPIONSHIP

Oregon Ducks

The Case For:

I picked them to win it all last year. I might pick them to win again. Second time is the charm! We’ll see how I feel on Friday after I’m on the course and chat with some folks and then we do our final predictions video. Oregon has three women—Dalia Frias (she’s coming along and getting more and more confident; they’ll need a big run from her), Mia Barnett (I don’t think we’ve seen her best performance yet), Annika Thompson (so steady and consistent)—who could all land within the top 40 on the right day. That’s a championship recipe. They’ll be led by Juliet Chrubet, Diana Cherotich and Şilan Ayyıldız, who could be top 15 on the right day. Oregon’s depth + upside is legitimate title-winning material. The podium is the bottom goal for them.

The Case Against:

Maybe it’s what happened last year. This is a track-tilted roster running on a course (Gans Creek) that’s more punishing than what they’ve seen this season. Maybe a less-tested runner like Cherotich hasn’t been at a stage like this and it takes a little adjusting.

Notre Dame

The Case For:

The most quietly dangerous team in the field. They’re seven-deep with women who can all break 16 minutes in the 5000m this upcoming season and that’s pure NCAA scoring depth. Veterans like Mary Bonner Dalton and Shiona Chisholm balance the high-ceiling freshmen like Amaya Aramini.

The Case Against:

Maybe it’s belief? This team hasn’t been on this stage in a meaningful way. Jesse Squire once did an analysis that almost every NCAA champion in the past 20+ years has already stood on the podium the year before. If they don’t know they’re capable of the podium…it could get away from them.

New Mexico

The Case For:

They have three heavy hitters up front: Pamela Kosgei (she’s looking to finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd in this race), Marion Jepngetich, and Judy Rono are all potential All-Americans. If Alice Seguin and Nicola Jansen land anywhere near the 60–70 place range, New Mexico could absolutely land on the podium. Coming down from altitude won’t hurt, either.

The Case Against:

If their No. 4–5 runners land outside the top 100, the Lobos are done. This is a top-heavy roster with very little margin for error.

Florida Gators

The Case For:

The top four are loaded. If a reinvigorated Hilda Olemomoi (just a year ago, we were having a bit more of a conversation around her maybe winning this meet) can still hang with the leaders deep into the race, and the additions of Judy Chepkoech, Desma Chepkoech, and Tia Wilson give Florida real podium potential. A big day from a freshman (like Claire Stegall) would tilt the whole thing upward.

The Case Against:

If Olemomoi and Chepkoech are only “fine,” rather than great, this becomes a 6th to 8th place team quickly.

BYU Cougars

The Case For:

Jane Hedengren is maybe a once-in-a-generation talent. Plus, this team has overwhelming depth. BYU legitimately has six to seven athletes capable of finishing as All-Americans. Riley Chamberlain is a rock-solid No. 2. The supporting cast of Taylor Lovell, Taylor Rohantinsky, Nelah Roberts, Jacey Farmer, and Zariel Macchia is stacked. I think that’s the lineup I’d go with.

The Case Against:

The only real danger is maybe picking the wrong lineup. With so many viable combinations, they could leave points on the table simply by choosing the wrong seven. Also… NC State might just be that good.

NC State Wolfpack

The Case For:

Depth. Depth. Depth. NC State has as many as six women who could finish top 30, which is a historically strong lineup. Grace Hartman (assuming health) is the spearhead, but the rise of Angelina Napoleon, Hannah Gapes, Brooke Rauber (she was 50th last year and she’s their 5th or 6th runner!?) and others gives NC State unmatched stability. No team in the field has more paths to a winning score.

The Case Against:

If Hartman is not fully healthy, it could change things. However, I also remember how they rallied for Kelsey Chmiel in 2023. Losing your No. 1 at the NCAA Championships is a big hit—even for a powerhouse.

I don’t know if there’s been a more intriguing race for the women’s team title going into the NCAA Championships. Going in, there’s a real case for all these schools.

MEN’S CHAMPIONSHIP

Oregon Ducks

The Case For:

Jerry Schumacher has this team peaking at the right moment. It’s a good mix of how teams could look in this new era of the NCAA with a couple of transfers and a few homegrown guys. Their transfers of Evan Bishop, Abdel Laadjel, and Michael Mireles have been high-impact. Then you have Oregon talent in Aiden Smith and Benjamin Balazs—plus blue-chip recruit Simeon Birnbaum. They looked like a powerhouse at Regionals. They were high-fiving across the finish line.

The Case Against:

Oregon hasn’t put together a big one at NCAAs in years. Talent might be there, but championship execution hasn’t been. But also, let’s remember that past performance is not indicative of future results

Virginia Cavaliers

The Case For:

There’s a cool quality about this squad. This team has six All-American caliber runners. Gary Martin is a top-10 threat, Justin Wachtel and Nathan Mountain have been consistently excellent all year. Their transfer portal additions Brett Gardner and Will Daly round out a fully formed lineup. Their potential 2-3-4 have a chip on their shoulder to prove how good they are cross country. Gardner was 51st in 2023, so that’s a key to remember. If they all run to their potential, UVA absolutely has big upside.

The Case Against:

Will Anthony hasn’t run since Gans Creek earlier this season so maybe that’s a question mark for them. But the big thing will be their past NCAA scars. Several of these guys had a rough national meet in 2023. Those ghosts can return.

Syracuse Orange

The Case For:

They’re maybe the hottest momentum team in the country. Sam Lawler is criminally underrated since he’s been a two-time All-American. No one talks about him enough. Assaf Harari has leveled up from his 71st finish last year and 88th finish the year before. I assume he’ll be an All-American. The transfer additions Matthew Neill and Peter Walsdorf have gelled quickly. Dominating the Northeast Region gave this squad real belief with five men in the top 10. They rolled it together and confidence can come from that.

The Case Against:

Their transfers haven’t run in the front pack of an NCAA 10K before. A too-fast opening K could blow up their race. Historically, that can be so hot and then really hard to come back from.

New Mexico Lobos

The Case For:

They’ve never finished higher than eighth at the NCAA Cross Country Championships. Better than 8th will be guaranteed! Best finish in school history incoming! They have the best individual runner in the NCAA in Habtom Samuel, who is the odds-on favorite to win. Their next three (Evans Kiplagat, Collins Kiprotich, and Vincent Chirchir) could all finish top 30. Matthew Kosgei is due for a good race and if this is it, this team becomes nearly automatic for a podium. The target for him would be to finish in the 50s.

The Case Against:

If Kosgei struggles, the whole thing collapses. Their back end is the biggest variable of any podium contender.

Iowa State Cyclones

The Case For:

They looked unbeatable at Gans Creek earlier in the season. They could realistically put three in the top 10 (Joash Ruto, Robin Kwemoi Bera, Rodgers Kiplimo or Sanele Masondo). This is a team built for 10K and built for redemption after last year’s runner-up finish. Add in the emotional horsepower of overcoming these odd midseason suspensions and adversity, this team is dangerous. Oklahoma State surprised them at the Big 12 Conference Championships—they were not prepared for that onslaught. This time, they’ll be more prepared.

The Case Against:

The grind of the season + the stress of the off-course drama could show up at the worst moment. If conditions are sloppy, they might struggle compared to Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Case For:

Coach Dave Smith has been thinking about this every day since last year’s championships. They want revenge and they look terrifying. Their Big 12 Conference Championships spread was eight seconds! That’s absurd. Brian Musau is a national title contender that should be on the heels of Samuel. The depth behind him in Denis Kipngetich, Adisu Guadia, Ryan Schoppe and Fouad Messaoudi is so good. Their ceiling is a runaway blowout if Musau is 2nd and if it’s a 5s spread behind him. They slammed the door so hard on Iowa State at the Big 12 race.

The Case Against:

Maybe it’s course familiarity since they didn’t run Gans Creek earlier this year? If Iowa State hits their absolute best day, OK State might get matched punch-for-punch.

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