Men’s 800m

Ben Pattison in theory gets selected on the basis of his 2023 world bronze medal but does not yet have the standard or a world ranking quota place. He arguably has not shown he is sufficiently recovered from injury in the spring to be competitive, with a 1:46.08 SB. I suspect on that basis, his selection would not be confirmed until August 26th, after the window closes, so that he gets the chance to show form and run the standard or get into the quota.

Max Burgin is the heavy favorite in this one following his 1.42.36 clocking in London and the fact he is finally having a full and healthy season having been fairly injury prone in prior years makes him a real contender on the global stage. Others with the standard and in the mix for those top two spots include Justin Davies, fresh off European U23 silver behind Niels Laros, Henry Jonas, who ran 1.44.10 in the heats of the same U23 championships, as well as Ethan Hussey and Callum Dodds. Davies is probably the slight favourite for that second spot in a championship style race and has been the most impressive over the season as a whole, looking like he could go a lot quicker than his 1:44.35 PB in the right race.

Women’s 1500m

Georgia Hunter-Bell will be selected as Olympic bronze medalist, however she is expected to run the 800m at the Trials, and the question is which event she chooses to do in Tokyo, or indeed, if she chooses to double. She has been saying in interviews she is undecided and will consult with Dame Kelly Holmes, the 2004 Olympic Champion over both 800m and 1500m. Given her dominant victory over 800m in London against a quality field, as well as the slightly underwhelming nature of the women’s 800m on the international scene right now, it seems like her best chance at gold, or any medal, lies in the 800m, where there is no Faith Kipyegon, Jess Hull, or Diribe Welteji.

The other athletes with the standard are Laura Muir, Revee Walcott-Nolan, Katie Snowden, Jemma Reekie, and Melissa Courtney-Bryant. I would expect Reekie to do the 800m, and Courtney-Bryant, if healthy, to do the 5000m, which likely leaves the battle for the remaining two spots between Muir, Walcott-Nolan and Snowden. This is perhaps the first time in over a decade where there is some uncertainty around whether Muir will make a GB team (she has been present at every major outdoor championship since Moscow 2013) as she works her way back from a hamstring injury suffered at the UK Indoor Championships in March. Snowden has not been having the most consistent of seasons, with her best being 4:02.02 for eleventh at the Rome Diamond League. That leaves Walcott-Nolan, who might just be rounding into form at the right time—4:02.09 is her best over 1500m, but that was a split time from the mile in London last week where she came in seventh, so I would probably give her the slight edge over Snowden.

5000m + Steeplechase

The men’s 5000m will be headlined by Josh Kerr in the likely absence of newly minted British record holder (12:46.59) George Mills, so whilst it will be intriguing to see how Kerr performs, there aren’t expected to be any other World Championship spots on the line as the rest of the Brits are too far away from even the quota spots at the moment.

The women’s 5000m could be one of the more intriguing races of the championships if all the protagonists make it to the start line, with four women under the World Championship standard over 5000m. Hannah Nuttall lopped 10s off her personal best to run 14:39.48 in London last week and has a strong kick that should serve her well in a championship race. Innes Fitzgerald is only 19 years old, and broke Zola Budd’s 40 year old European U20 record last week with her 14:39.56, finishing just behind Nuttall in that London race. For context, that is over 12s faster than Parker Valby’s NCAA record, and Innes is the equivalent of a true freshman! However she has been selected for both the 3000m and 5000m at the European U20 championships, taking place from August 7th to 10th, so she has a busy couple of weeks ahead! Megan Keith ran 14:47.34 in London and is returning to her best following an injury hit Winter. She should be selected for the 10,000m so she may choose not to compete in the 5000m at worlds. Melissa Courtney-Bryant showed some excellent form indoors but has been dealing with niggles throughout the season and has only raced once outdoors in May, where she ran 14:48 to snag the world standard.

In the women’s 3000m steeplechase the retirement of Paris Olympic seventh placer Lizzie Bird to pursue her legal career left a bit of a void which has been ably filled by former Florida Gator Elise Thorner. She has now joined the New Balance training group in Manchester, and after coming into the year with a 9:28.49 PB, has dipped under that three times this season, including a 9:15.06 run in Oslo—comfortably clear of the World standard of 9:18.00.

In the men’s steeple, last year was quite an emotional race as the athletes worked together to try and achieve the UKA B standard which would have allowed for selection to the Olympics, and Phil Norman ended devastatingly only 0.15 seconds away. This year no Brit has broken 8:20 or gotten close to the consideration standard of 8:17.50, albeit the race still promises to be a good one with most of the same protagonists as last year, including Zak Seddon, Will Battershill, Mark Pearce, and Phil Norman.

Men’s Sprints

Over 100m, Zharnel Hughes will be selected due to his Budapest bronze medal, and is rounding into form nicely with his 9.91 clocking in Eugene at the Pre Fontaine Classic. Behind him 2024 NCAA champion Louie Hinchliffe, world’s fastest accountant Eugene Amo-Dadzie, last year’s European bronze medalist Romell Glave, and World Indoor Champion Jeremiah Azu make up the contenders over 100m. Hinchliffe has been dealing with injuries this year so he has not quite looked like his 2024 self with an SB of 10.08, while Amo-Dadzie has been rounding nicely into form with a 9.99 clocking in June. Azu doesn’t currently have the standard but I would back him to get it over the coming weeks if he places highly enough at the Trials. Over 200m, only Hughes has the standard and no one else is close.

Over 400m, Matthew Hudson-Smith is selected due to his global medals and will not be racing, whilst Charlie Dobson should also be selected barring disaster at the Trials. The only other person with the standard is Sam Reardon, who picked up an injury in early July and is unlikely to be racing trials but has indicated he should be back in time for Tokyo, and the question will be whether selectors give him the opportunity for an individual team spot. The only other sub-45 athlete is Lewis Davey who ran 44.91 in London last week, so he too could potentially get the standard at the Trials or over the coming weeks. There will also be a number of athletes running sub-46 who will be battling for those coveted relay spots.

The men’s 400m hurdles will hopefully be less dramatic than the ‘I am Spartacus’ moment in last year’s edition but features three men with the standard in Alastair Chalmers, Seamus Derbyshire, and Tyri Donovan and three others who are very close. There is potential for a hard fought battle for team spots.

Women’s Sprints

The expectation is that the team will be Dina Asher-Smith, Daryll Neita, and Amy Hunt in both the 100m and 200m. However look to the likes of Bianca Williams and 4x100m hero from World Relays Success Eduan to potentially cause an upset over 200m particularly, with Daryll Neita struggling to get back to the form that landed her fourth over 100m and fifth over 200m in Paris last year. Neita and Hunt are racing both events, whilst Asher-Smith has chosen to focus on only the 200m. Hunt ran the 200m world U20 record in 2019 at the age of 17, and finally, after six years, bettered her PB over 200m in London last week. She is looking like a huge threat to impress in Tokyo if she continues the improvement trajectory. It is also worth mentioning that the fourth member of the Olympic silver medal winning relay quartet, Imani Lansiquot, recently announced on Instagram that she has had to end her 2025 season due to injury.