The fields assembled may not get the better of either mark, particularly with warmer temperatures in the forecast, but it’s still very possible that we’ll see some very fast times, particularly on the men’s side, with six entrants in the field sporting personal bests under 2:04. The most publicized record chase will be Conner Mantz’s pursuit of the American record, which is officially Khalid Khannouchi’s 2:05:38 or, when including non-record-eligible times, Ryan Hall’s 2:04:58.

The elite races get underway on Sunday, October 12th at 7:30am CDT. NBC 5 Chicago will broadcast the race live on television beginning at 7am CDT and the live stream will be available at nbcchicago.com. You can follow along with live results here.

_______________________________

The CITIUS MAG team is taking over Happy Camper Pizza in Old Town (1209 North Wells Street) with HOKA during the Chicago Marathon festivities. On Sunday morning, we’ll be posted up as part of the HOKA cheer zone to host our alternate broadcast watchalong, where Eric Jenkins, Karen Lesiewicz, Paul Hof-Mahoney, and other guests will be providing their own commentary, reactions, insights and analysis live as the elite races unfold (stream starting at 7:15am CDT).

We’ll also be hosting group runs, poster-making sessions, and more with HOKA over the next few days – you can find the full schedule of events and RSVP info here.

_______________________________

The Course And The Weather

Chicago is famously the flattest and fastest of the three American majors, with none of Boston’s rolling hills or New York’s towering bridges. The course, which begins and ends at Grant Park, travels north for eight miles parallel to Lake Michigan before twice looping back downtown in a double-L shape.

Despite its Windy City moniker, the forecast only calls for a breeze of 5-10 MPH from the southeast on race day, and shouldn’t be a huge factor. The bigger concern will likely be the temperature – although the last few days have seen some good news, as the forecast has trended cooler and the high is now only 67 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s perfectly workable but not totally ideal marathoning conditions – the 66% humidity may make things feel a bit warmer – and if the trend continues, the heat shouldn’t be a huge factor.

_______________________________

The Reigning Champ Vs. The Talented Newcomer

The 2024 champ John Korir is back to defend his crown, and this year he’s coming to town riding even higher, having won this year’s Boston Marathon in between. With another Chicago win, Korir would strengthen the case for world #1 status in a fluid men’s marathoning scene that hasn’t yet found a true successor to Kiptum or peak Eliud Kipchoge. Korir has a great record of success at Chicago, finishing fourth in 2023 and third in 2022 before his breakout race last year, and at 28 years old, he’s likely just entering his prime.

But Korir has his work cut out for him in the form of Uganda’s Jacob Kiplimo. The 2023 World 10,000m medalist and two-time World XC champ has already put together a strong career on the track and grass, but once he began tackling the half marathon, it became immediately clear that Kiplimo’s future lay on the roads. Officially only 24 years old, Kiplimo has already twice broken the world record over 13.1 miles, running 57:31 in 2021 and then becoming the first man in history under 57 minutes with a mind-boggling 56:42 in Barcelona this past February.

Kiplimo made his hotly-anticipated marathon debut in fine form, running 2:03:37 behind Sabastian Sawe in London this spring. After all the hype around his compatriot Joshua Cheptegei’s switch to the marathon, Kiplimo is now the Ugandan national record holder at the distance and it sure seems like the sky is the limit. He’s only raced once since London, a 58:29 victory at the Buenos Aires Half Marathon in August over 2021 Chicago champ Seifu Tura, but it’s fair to assume he’s ready for a fast time. Given Kiplimo’s upside, it’s entirely possible that Korir could run the race of his life and still get beat, but if you’re betting on experience, Korir is still your guy.

This year’s race is no two-man battle for gold, however. Timothy Kiplagat, the 2024 Tokyo Marathon runner-up, joins Korir as the member of the sub-2:03 club in this field, and if the rabbits take things out hot, all eyes will be on Kiplagat, Korir, and Kiplimo. But Kiplagat hasn’t raced since a low-key half marathon in February, so who knows what kind of form he’ll bring to Chicago.

Fellow Kenyan Amos Kipruto, who finished third last year, has four WMM podium finishes on his card, and Ethiopian Mohamed Esa, the man who finished between Kipruto and Korir last year, is also on the list. Bashir Abdi of Belgium is a reliable contender for podium finishes, most recently taking silver at the Paris Olympics, and while Geoffrey Kamworor’s best marathoning days may be behind him, he’s still a two-time NYC champ who finished on a Major podium as recently at 2023 (second in London).

Conner Mantz Targets The American Record

Mantz has made no secret of his intentions for Chicago, skipping out on a World Championship berth to focus on this race. He came on on the CITIUS MAG podcast this week to talk about his goals and buildup, where he made no secret of his number one goal: the American record. Mantz is coming off a 2:05:08 fourth-place run in Boston this spring, showing he’s closing in on crossing off two big career milestones: a podium finish in a World Marathon Major and the fastest American marathon ever run.

The CITIUS MAG team did a deep dive on Mantz’s American record chances in the Lap Count this week, but the main takeaway is this: if conditions and pacing align, Mantz should have a good shot to accomplish both. He’s the fastest American in the field by personal best, but not the only top-ten contender: CJ Albertson is slated to contest an ambitious fifth marathon of 2025 after a disappointing 40th-place run at Worlds, and Ryan Ford will look to build on his breakout 2:08:00, 10th-place finish from Boston. The field also features a smattering of U.S.-based internationals like Canadian Rory Linkletter, Morocco’s Zouhair Talbi (who’s in the process of changing allegiances to represent the U.S.), and NAZ Elite Kenyans Wesley Kiptoo and Alex Masai, who could also factor into the chase pack/top-ten battle.

Olympic Medalists Round Out The Field

Two other familiar faces will toe the start line in Chicago and likely receive loud cheers from the crowd: Two-time Olympic medalist Galen Rupp and 2016 Olympic 1500m champion Matthew Centrowitz.

Rupp is 39 years old and seven years removed from his 2:06:07 personal best, but he’s still chugging along under the guidance of Nike coach Mike Smith. His tune-up results—an 18th-place finish at the U.S. 20k champs and a 62:42 half marathon in Philadelphia—don’t suggest he’ll contend for a top-ten spot, but you never know. Centrowitz, on the other hand, is almost certainly participating more in an ambassadorial role, but last year that still meant a 2:24:38 finish.

_______________________________

Ethiopia Brings A Stacked Roster And An Intriguing Debutante

A relatively small women’s elite field with no huge headliner suggests that race organizers were left trying to fill a Ruth Chepngetich-sized hole following the world record holder’s suspension in July. The race still has four sub-2:20 entrants, all from Ethiopia, led by Megertu Alemu. Alemu is one of those perpetual contenders who’s poised for a breakout, as the 2:16:34 runner has finished in the top five of London four times in the last five years and landed on the Chicago podium with a third-place run in 2023. She hasn’t raced yet this year, but her last race of 2024 was a 2:16:49 victory in Valencia, so surely she isn’t coming to Chicago to finish second.

Alemu’s biggest threat may be an athlete who’s never even run a marathon before. 25-year-old Ejgayehu Taye, also of Ethiopia, has a 64:14 half marathon PB set last fall and track bests of 14:12.98 for 5000m and 29:50.52 for 10,000m. Taye finished fifth in the 10,000m at Worlds just last month, so who knows how much time she’s dedicated to marathon training, but the talent is there. If Taye still need a trial run to get used to the distance and isn’t quite yet ready to contend, the other names to watch would be Bedatu Hirpa, who’s won four of her last five marathons on the sub-Major level, or Hawi Feysa, who finished third in Tokyo this past spring.

Kenya’s best bet for the win comes in the form of Mary Ngugi-Cooper, who has a great record of top-ten finishes at majors but has never won a marathon. Ngugi-Cooper is exactly the kind of wily veteran who could surprise with a long-awaited breakout, but if the race is fast up front, she’ll have her work cut out for her.

_______________________________

The American Women Are Due For PBs

While Emily Sisson’s 2:18:29 American record, set at Chicago in 2022, is likely not going down this weekend, the all-time top-ten is a little less safe. The final spot is currently held by Susanna Sullivan, who ran 2:21:56 at this race last fall, and while Sullivan is still recovering from her fourth-place run at Worlds, several other Americans in the field are well-positioned to leapfrog her on the list.

Natosha Rogers bounced back from a disappointing marathon debut at the 2024 Olympic Trials (where she finished 28th) with a much stronger sophomore effort, finishing seventh at this year’s Nagoya Women’s Marathon in 2:23:51. She’s coming off a solid 68:42 half marathon tune-up in Copenhagen in September, and as the 34-year-old, who only recently transitioned from the track to the roads, learns her new distance better, a top-five finish feels totally within reach.