With the first true weekend of the indoor campaign now in the books, it’s only fair that we put a stake in the ground and put out some unhinged predictions for the rest of the 2026 season based solely on a single data point…

…Okay, it’s not fair at all. But that’s half the fun of sports fandom: the joy of giving in to a kneejerk reaction, then allowing that perception to color our appreciation of everything that subsequently happens.

Alright! Let’s extrapolate, speculate, and percolate some takes.

It’s Hobbs’s world, we’re all just living in it.

Based on the just-under five minutes of racing we’ve seen from Hobbs Kessler this year, it’s safe to say he is the best middle distance runner on Earth today and quite possibly ever. (After all, he did yoink a world record from the great Kenenisa Bekele.) We see no reason the gravy train should run off the tracks, so let’s go ahead and slot Kessler in for a second WR of the year—in the indoor mile—and of course a win over a loaded field at Wanamaker. The kid loves racing and is great indoors, particularly, so from there—glossing over his indoor 1500m U.S. title on Staten Island—let’s fast forward to the World Indoor Championships in Kujawy Pomorze, Poland. Obviously, he wins there, too, regardless of who the rest of the world trots out in a futile attempt to keep the mulleted Michigander from breaking the tape.

Outdoors, it’s a whole lot more of the same. HK slices through domestic competition like it’s warm butter, flies across the pond for a few Diamond League meetings (he wins those, too), then picks up his first – and the first – gold medal in the 1500m at the World Ultimate Championships.

The Reality Check: Are we putting cashing out our retirement funds to place an enormous wager on an elaborate parlay based on the above prediction? No. But we wouldn’t have bet big on “Isaac Nader, 1500m World Champ” either and look where that got us: still buying groceries on a newsletter-writer’s salary.

Taylor Made Taylor Makes it.

Diljeet Taylor’s squad will be the member of the loose SWOOSH TC federation of clubs that puts the enterprise fully on the map. First year pro Meghan Hunter has already taken the first shot with a W at Dr. Sander, going 1:59.70 in the 800m to take down a very respectable field of domestic players, many with experience on the global stage. That’s the sort of momentum a young club can harness, particularly one as cohesive as the Provo branch of SWOOSH TC, which benefits from a de facto feeder system in the mighty BYU women’s distance squad.

Lexy Halladay-Lowry signed on after her fantastic final season in the NCAA, and more seasoned pros with international championship experience like Whittni Orton Morgan and Courtney Wayment have heeded the call as well, switching brand sponsors to Nike to continue training under Taylor. Members of this squad ought to be a very regular presence on U.S. teams going forward, and with the Eugene outpost slim on numbers and the Flagstaff branch still developing a clear identity, come next year, when fans talk about SWOOSH TC they will be thinking first and foremost about Provo.

The Reality Check: Not actually that crazy. The issue many pro squads run into is getting athletes to buy into the team concept, and that success for one is a success for all, because at the pro level… that isn’t technically true. But it’s a much easier task when the core of your crew have been friends and training partners for years, and bring a similar team sensibility to the pro circuit that they carried during their decorated college years. Fans can tell—and tend to like!—when a team genuinely likes all of its members.

The 1500m in America runs through Portland, again.

Sinclaire Johnson announced last week she was signing a deal with HOKA after spending the entirety of her pro career to that point with Nike. She followed up that announcement with a stellar season opener, taking reigning World silver medalist Dorcus Ewoi to the line and running the No. 4 time in U.S. history, 4:01.30. Well, if that’s the sort of racing we can expect out of Johnson this year, let’s go ahead and extend her shine to the to-be-announced but hinted-at professional training group being built around her in Portland. For the first time since The Club Formerly Known as Bowerman packed its bags and departed for Eugene, Johnson and co. are returning Oregon’s hippie mecca to its rightful status as Miler City. A world class talent at the core, access to a global footwear giant’s research and development facilities, and agreeable year-round weather that’s rarely extreme enough to disrupt training… sound familiar? Well it’s back, and the next wave of pros out of the NCAA are going to take notice. It’s only a matter of time before the American records and global medals start to roll in.

The Reality Check: While we are big Sinclaire and/or Portland fans, the jury’s still out… but it’s an intriguing premise. Young people like living in generally cool, walkable cities where they can make friends besides their coworkers. And Johnson signing on lends a whole lot of legitimacy to the operation. For middle-distance athletes who don’t want to live at altitude—or in Blacksburg, Virginia—this development is an exciting one. One or two more big names could turn this what-if into a sure-is.

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