By David Melly
September 11, 2024
If there’s one thing every track and field fan loves, it’s unpredictability. There’s nothing better than turning on your television, hearing the gun go off, and – despite your years of poring over statistics, workout videos, and race replays – having no idea who’s going to win.
Conversely, there’s no bigger enemy to the success of track and field than repetition. One of the most common critiques of the Diamond League format is that when one athlete is running rampant over their prime event, the stable pacing and racing conditions created by the DL can engender a sense of inevitability when, say, someone like Faith Kipyegon is a near lock to win any 1500m she starts. Even when the best athletes in the world are showing up and showing out, it creates a bit of a setup for failure: the fans either get a world record, or they’re disappointed.
Over the last three seasons, Jakob Ingebrigtsen’s looming shadow over the men’s 1500m could, at times, feel oppressive. Outside his shit-talking in the media and uncanny ability to get beat in World finals, watching Jakob clip the pacers’ heels then slow-drop the field en route to a sub-3:30 performance again and again – whether in Monaco, or Lausanne, or Silesia – created a sense of deja vu. But 2024 has been different.
First, we watched an (admittedly rusty and on the comeback from injury) Ingebrigtsen get beat by 2023 World champ Josh Kerr at his own game in the Bowerman Mile. Then, he had to dive for the line to hold off a hard-charging Timothy Cheruiyot just to defend his home turf in Oslo of all places. We all know what happened when the rest of the world saw what a fully healthy Cole Hocker can do in Paris. And then, just last week, Jakob suffered his third loss of the season, this time to Yared Nuguse in Zurich – in a well-paced, string-em-out 1500m no less. All of a sudden, the regular-season men’s 1500m doesn’t feel quite so predictable.
It’s not like Jakob has lost his touch: sandwiched in between these races were a lifetime-best 3:26.73 in Monaco, a world record over 3000m, and an Olympic title in the 5000m. It just seems like the rest of the world has finally caught up to the Norwegian wunderkind. Still, the real-life embodiment of “main character energy” is setting the terms of most races he enters, given his proclivity for front-running and spot as the fastest active miler in the world. But it’s no longer Jakob vs. Josh; it’s a true multi-dimensional battle for supremacy. The five fastest 1500m runners in 2024 include the 2019, 2021, 2023, and 2024 World/Olympic champions, plus a man (Nuguse) who’s run a 3:43 mile.
With the competition as stiff as it is, no one stays on top – or gets bumped to the bottom – for very long. Just look at Josh Kerr, who started the year looking untouchable thanks to an indoor world record in the 2 mile and a World Indoor title over 3000m. A few months later, he had to settle for silver in Paris and barely made a dent in Zurich last week, finishing well behind the leaders in fifth. Three days later, Kerr was making a mockery of the competition at the Fifth Avenue Mile in New York, shattering Sydney Maree’s 43-year-old course record at the storied race.
The next time he toes the line with any of his main rivals, we won’t know for sure which Josh will show up. And that’s great for the sport. The circuit-averse Kerr isn’t expected to show up in Brussels for the Diamond League final (which will feature Hocker, Nuguse, and Ingebrigtsen), but it certainly raises the hype for 2025 that fans think of the two Americans and the Scot as evenly matched when they all face off head-to-head-to-head in the Grand Slam Track league.
But that’s getting ahead of ourselves: Friday’s final in Brussels will be chock full of narratives as Yared, Cole, and Jakob battle to strengthen their respective cases as top dog. And while it’s unlikely, it’s certainly possible that, like in Paris, the pre-race favorites run the legs off one another and open the door for someone like Cheruiyot or young Dutchman Niels Laros to sneak-attack late. No one athlete has gotten too comfortable in the proverbial hot seat atop the field, and as a result, the 1500m is better and more entertaining than it’s been in years.
So pick your faves and consult your magic 8-ball, because right now, the 2024 Diamond League 1500m champion is a total toss-up – and we’re better off as a result.
David Melly
David began contributing to CITIUS in 2018, and quickly cemented himself as an integral part of the team thanks to his quick wit, hot takes, undying love for the sport and willingness to get yelled at online.
