We’re living in a golden age of unpredictability.

At the same time as we lament the flattening of professional marathoning into a series of technology-aided time trials, elsewhere in the track and field world, outcomes have never been more uncertain.

We’re talking, of course, about the NCAA men’s 1500m. Generally speaking, middle-distance races on the collegiate level tend to separate the tactical wizards and generational talents from the also-rans, filtering out the chaos of championship racing over time to fairly predictable results. Over the last several years of the 800m/1500m at NCAAs, there have been a good number of repeat champions:

• Maia Ramsden (2023 and 2024 outdoor 1500m, 2024 indoor mile)
• Cole Hocker (2021 indoor 1500m, 2021 outdoor 1500m)
• Roisin Willis (2023 indoor 800m, 2025 outdoor 800m)
• Juliette Whittaker (2024 indoor 800m, 2024 outdoor 800m)
• Luke Houser (2023 and 2025 indoor mile)
• Joe Waskom (2022 and 2024 outdoor 1500m)
• Nathan Green (2023 and 2025 outdoor 1500m)
• Wilma Nielsen (2025 and 2026 indoor mile)

Come outdoor NCAAs this year, there will be two women with an opportunity to pick up their third titles—Whittaker and Nielsen. But at the 2026 indoor meet, three of the four middle-distance champions (with the exception of Nielsen) were adorned with the crown for the first time, and none was more unexpected than mile champ Carter Cutting of BYU. You’d think that the reigning indoor mile champ would be the odds-on favorite to win outdoors, and yet that feels just as unlikely as Cutting’s first trip to the top of the podium.

Cutting’s won his first three 1500m outings of the season, but two of those races were in Utah, and at the Stanford Invitational, he wasn’t in the fastest section and won his race by six seconds in 3:41.32. Until his conference meet at least, he’s kinda in the same boat as indoors: good at winning races, but no super splashy PBs to his name. Then again, that can often be the kind of runner who thrives in championship settings, so maybe we shouldn’t put too much stock in his spot on the descending order list…

It’s hard not to, however, in the current environment. That’s because the eight fastest college 1500ms of all time have all been run in the last two seasons, including four of the top five in the last three weeks. The newly-minted collegiate record holder is Oregon’s Simeon Birnbaum, who only finished seventh in last year’s 1500m final but took third second in the 3000m indoors and became the first collegian ever to run 3:31 in-season with a stunning eight-second victory at the Oregon Team Challenge in April.

So is Birnbaum the favorite? Surprisingly, that’s a pretty hard case to make. He has three Big Ten titles to his name, but all in longer distances, and had he not just run a huge 1:44.67 800m this past weekend, one could argue he would be better suited focusing on the 5000m and hoping for a tactical race. But now the be-(sun)-spectacled junior has opened his outdoor campaign by running 1:44, 3:31, and 13:19 so it’s hard to call him anything but a contender in any or all distance events.

Besides Birnbaum, there are at least four or five guys with nearly as strong a claim to co-favorite status.

Unless his fate changes this time around, Villanova’s Marco Langon may very well graduate with the dubious honor of being the fastest guy to never win an NCAA title, as he sits at #2 on the 1500m list (3:32.79), #3 on the 3000m list (7:34.00), and #5 on the 5000m list (13:05.21). Could his last season be the one where he finally gets to the line first?

Gary Martin and Colin Sahlman are two guys that’ve already won NCAA titles in other events, but never the 1500m. There’s a good chance one or both of them opt to focus on other distances, but it’s fairly likely that at least Martin will give the 1500m one more go in his senior season. Sahlman has been ripping 800ms all year but skipped the event entirely indoors; perhaps the lack of a distance relay outdoors will entice him to the shorter event. But if he does choose the 1500m, he’s gotta be considered a threat.

The two guys that finished between Cutting and Martin at NCAAs indoors are Trent McFarland of Michigan and George Couttie of Virginia Tech, two runners who’ve been in the mix but never on top on the NCAA scene for a little while now. They don’t have the pedigree of some of the others, but at the same time, it wouldn’t be a shock to see either of them break out.

Last but not least (how’s that for a lede for a section about a guy who is fourth on the all time list?) is Brian Masai of Arkansas. The SEC 3000m champ PRed by five seconds at the Arkansas Twilight meet last weekend, running 3:33.17 for second behind OK State alum Fouad Messaoudi. Masai’s historically been more of a distance guy, but he did anchor the Razorbacks to a runner-up finish in the DMR indoors.

So that’s eight guys who’ve never won a 1500m title but have a legitimate chance to. If they all make the final in Eugene in June (far from a guarantee), it’ll be anyone’s guess who comes out on top. No matter what, the results will be nothing less than epic. If you ascribe to the belief that predictability is anathema to excitement, the collegiate 1500m has never been better. And if you’re the kind of fan that wants to see a record in every race… well, all the fastest guys are running fast right now. There will only be one victor, but everybody wins.

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