Two teams that have played spoiler to the Northern Arizona dynasty over the past decade get the stage to themselves this year. Oklahoma State (2023) and BYU (2019) have both won national championships in the past five years, but neither was the presumptive favorite in the year they won. Now the script has been flipped, with these two programs co-headlining the sport’s latest heavyweight showdown.

Oklahoma State came into the championship meet last season as a de facto underdog to NAU. The top two squads in the nation hadn’t faced each other all year, but the Lumberjacks got the benefit of the doubt due to their reputation. The Cowboys then proceeded to deliver one of the most dominant championship performances in recent memory, placing all five scorers in the top 15.

OSU only got better over the summer and entered this season as a hefty favorite to repeat for the second time in program history (2009, 2010). This put a sizable target on their back for the rest of the country to aim for.

BYU is no stranger to giant-slaying (see 2019), and likely wasn’t scared by Oklahoma State’s label as one of the best teams ever assembled. The Cougars first chance to prove their mettle came at the Big 12 conference championships, a loaded race featuring three of the country’s top four teams. BYU shocked the top-ranked Cowboys, handing OSU its first loss in a meaningful meet since the 2022 national championship. The Cougars rode their hallmark depth to the win, the same way they have in each and every one of their six meets this year.

In all four of their major outings this season, BYU had a spread under 30 seconds, including a 1-5 sweep of some serious competition at the Dellinger Invitational, and a win on this very course at Nuttycombe.

Don’t overlook an Oklahoma State team looking for revenge, however. Their biggest chance for an improvement upon their conference performance lies with Fouad Messoudi, a top-10 finisher at Nationals last year who placed just 32nd at this year’s Big 12 meet. If Messoudi and the Cowboys run to their potential on Saturday, they have the higher ceiling, and could come close to their 49-point score from last year.

Sleeper pick: There are roughly six teams vying for the remaining two podium spots, and while the smart money may be on teams like Arkansas and Iowa State who have consistently performed all year, don’t count out a “Win One For The Gipper” effort from No. 6 NAU in coach Mike Smith’s “Last Dance” (forgive the mixed metaphor).

The Lumberjacks have had an uncharacteristic season with three losses already, but the sort of institutional knowledge that comes from six championships and eight straight top-two finishes has to mean something. If they are going to reach the podium again, they may need David Mullarkey (Big Sky champion, 5th at Mountain Regional), to extend the school’s four-year run of putting a man in the top 10, the longest active streak in the country.

Men’s Individual: Last year’s top two return, plus new names enter the mix

Similar to last season, there is no overwhelming favorite in the men’s individual race. Harvard’s Graham Blanks and New Mexico’s Habtom Samuel, the two men who battled to the line in Charlottesville last year are back, and they are joined by NCAA cross country’s biggest offseason addition, Solomon Kipchoge of Texas Tech.

Each of those three have finished first or second in every single one of their races this season, but with all of them going head-to-head on Saturday, something has to give. Blanks is trying to become the 13th man to defend his cross country title, while Samuel, who beat Blanks at Pre-Nationals, is looking for a second title of his own after winning the 10,000m on the track in June. Kipchoge, who beat Samuel in the Mountain Regional, is in just his first year in the NCAA at 28 years old, looking to make a name for himself stateside.

The list of contenders doesn’t end there however. Oklahoma State’s Brian Musau (8th at 2023 NCAAs) won the toughest conference race in the country this year, giving him his second consecutive Big 12 title. While he subsequently finished 6th at the Midwest Regional, that meet was little more than a formality for OSU to get into the big dance.

Similarly, UNC’s Parker Wolfe (9th at 2023 NCAAs) finished 3rd at his conference meet and 6th at regionals while recovering from injury, but can’t be ignored with a win in Madison on his resumé already this year at Nuttycombe. Wolfe is looking to add another NCAA title after winning the outdoor 5000m over the summer, and would be the first Tarheel to win the men’s crown since 1947 (Jack Milne).

Sleeper pick: Six years ago when this meet was last held in Wisconsin, it was Morgan McDonald who walked away with the individual title for the Badgers on a snowy day. Look for UW’s own Bob Liking to do the same this year. Now there are a few factors working against Liking, including his 15th place finish at a Great Lakes Regional not necessarily full of star-power, but I’ll continue to beat the drum of not putting too much stake into regionals results. (Plus, the Badgers scoring runners ran almost the entire 10K race as a five-man pack.) What is more concerning is his sub-par history at Nationals (66th in 2021, 34th in 2022, 83rd in 2023), but the Badgers will need him to step up if they want to make the podium for the first time since 2012. Liking and Wisconsin both finished sixth at Pre-Nats, but the team has plenty of room for improvement as Olympian Adam Spencer finished 180th.

Liking won Big Tens for a fourth straight time this year, and maybe his super powers annually end there, but there is something magical about hosting Nationals in one of the best cross country towns in America: a Wisconsin runner has finished in the top five of the men’s race each of the two previous times Madison hosted the season finale (McDonald in 2018 and Steve Lacy in 1978).

Another sleeper pick is BYU’s Casey Clinger who could finally get his moment after four top-25 finishes, including making the top 10 in 2021 (8th) and 2022 (7th).

Women’s Team: With the sun setting on another dynasty, a host of programs look to take advantage

Just as the typically dominant Northern Arizona is having something of a down year on the men’s side, this is likely the first time this decade we won’t see the NC State women finish first or second. While Grace Hartman (ACC Champion, Southeast Regional champion) has been running incredibly well this season, she is the only scorer back from the team that won a third straight title last year. While the graduation of stars like Katelyn Tuohy and Kelsey Chmiel was inevitable, the No. 13 Wolfpack’s biggest hit has been rising star Leah Stephens (43rd at 2023 NCAAs) missing the entire season with injury.

In terms of schools that will contend for a title, it is a little more open than the two-team race on the men’s side. No. 1 ranked BYU is looking to become the first program since Colorado in 2004 to win both team titles in the same year, and just like their men’s team, the Cougars will rely on their depth to do it.

BYU is riding a three meet winning streak over quality competition at Pre-Nats, Big 12s, and the Mountain Regional, despite no individual finishing higher than fifth in each race. At regionals, their spread was under 20 seconds, and at conference it was under 10!

Coach Diljeet Taylor and company had three straight top-two finishes from 2019-2021, but are attempting to bounce back from a surprising 14th place finish last season.

Another historic program returning to prominence this year is Oregon. The Ducks’ rapid rise comes in the first year with Shalane Flanagan as head coach (she was an assistant to coach Jerry Schumacher who led both the men’s and women’s teams for the two seasons prior). Wins at the Big Ten conference championship and the West Regional have the Ducks ranked second in the country, their highest mark since 2018. That was also the last time Oregon made the podium, finishing third in Wisconsin. They placed 10th last season.

The Ducks waited until late in the season to run all of their top women, but have been rolling through the postseason. Oregon hasn’t lost since South Carolina transfer Silan Ayyildiz made her cross country debut for the school at Big Tens, pulling off the win over teammate Maddy Elmore (52nd at 2023 NCAAs). The Ducks roster is loaded with stars, including Olympic 1500m finalist Klaudia Kazimierska (11th at Big Ten championships).

With four and five titles respectively, Oregon and BYU are two of the sport's most successful programs. The Northern Arizona women however, are seeking their first. It seemed like the Lady Jacks would finally break through last year, before coming up just one point short of NC State. The women’s team is actually the one more likely to give coach Mike Smith one last championship in his final season, which would be a fitting farewell to the program he has built.

Smith took over the NAU job with a men’s team coming off a national title, while the women’s squad hadn’t qualified for the championships in nearly a decade. While his men’s teams have dominated, Smith’s legacy will be felt in the elevation of the women’s program to nearly the same level. This year marks a school-record-tying sixth consecutive nationals berth for the women, and they have spent parts of the last two seasons ranked No. 1 in the country.

NAU entered the year as the favorite to win it all, returning the bulk of last year’s runner-up team, but waited until the postseason to show all of their cards. The Jacks have momentum, sweeping their conference meet and finishing just 13 points behind BYU at regionals, with more than enough talent to close that gap this Saturday in Wisconsin.

Sleeper pick: Last week the Washington Huskies were the No.3 team in the nation, probably ranked a little too high to be considered a sleeper. Then after a third place finish at the West Regional, they dropped three spots to sixth, perfectly into sleeper pick territory. UW has been living under the shadow of fellow Pac 12 expat Oregon all season, but are just as deep and talented as the three teams mentioned above.

The Huskies won Nuttycombe back in September before finishing second to BYU at Pre-Nats and Oregon at Big Tens, but they arguably haven’t shown their full potential yet this season. Duke transfer Amina Maatoug (9th at 2023 NCAAs) has the best pedigree of any runner on their roster but has yet to finish in their scoring five in three of her four races. If Maatoug can put it together at Nationals, Washington has a legitimate chance to win their second title in program history (2008).

Women’s Individual: No Valby, no Tuohy, no clear favorite, it’s anybody’s race