Niels Laros, really? Sure, he’s good, but not that good.

Hear us out for a moment. The 20-year-old Dutchman may have the 15th best personal best in the [likely] World field, and he’s not even the fastest guy from the Netherlands this year thanks to Stefan Nillessen’s 3:29.23 run in Paris, but after Laros won his second Diamond League meet of the year last week in Brussels, it’s worth a closer look before you write this headline off as clickbait.

Laros started the year by beating the likes of Biniam Mehary and Getnet Wale in an indoor 3000m, running 7:29.49. He didn’t have a perfect indoor season, only finishing 11th at Euro Indoors, but his first DL of 2025 was a surprise come-from-behind victory at the Bowerman mile, hawking down Yared Nuguse with that epic kick. Counting Brussels, he’s now won his last five races in a row, including double victories in the 800m and 5000m at the European U23 championships (which included a 1:44.19 800m PB in the heats—faster than Nuguse or Cole Hocker have ever run). Laros was cagey about his intentions for Tokyo given that he’s now qualified in three events, but he’d be crazy not to prioritize the 1500m.

It’s not just that he won in Brussels. He also beat Nuguse and Phanuel Koech in a championship-style close to run 3:30.58, splitting 53.4 for his last 400m and 25.5 for his last 200m. Unlike in Eugene, when he had to come from a long way back to track down Nuguse, Laros executed this one perfectly, sitting in Koech’s pocket up front out of trouble until the final 150m. Koech is another guy who can contend for the win in Tokyo—his five career 1500ms, all run this year, have included three wins, two runner-up finishes, and a world junior record—and Laros handily dispatched him.

Laros, Nuguse, and Koech are three guys who could conceivably win gold in Tokyo… but what’s everyone else up to? Laros finished sixth at the Olympics last summer, so let’s start with the five guys who beat him: Hocker, Josh Kerr, Nuguse, Jakob Ingebrigtsen, and Hobbs Kessler. For starters, Kessler and Nuguse won’t be in Tokyo unless something changes in the Diamond League final. Ingebrigtsen is certainly capable of winning gold at his very best, but the title has famously eluded him since his 2021 Olympic gold, and just-as-famously, he’s working his way back from injury and hasn’t yet raced outdoors. That leaves Hocker and Kerr. Both men should also rightfully be considered contenders for gold, but Hocker was a well-beaten third at his own national championship. That being said, no one in the world peaks better than Cole Hocker, so the Olympic champ can’t be written off, but we also don’t have much data as Hocker hasn’t raced since USAs.

Josh Kerr is a similarly mysterious case—perhaps deliberately. The reigning World champ won two of his three Slams earlier this spring, defeating Hocker and Nuguse, but he lost to Koech on his home turf at the London Diamond League, so by transitive property, he’s not out of reach for Laros. But Kerr only raced once since then, a dominant 5000m victory at the UK champs, so he’s keeping his late-summer cards close to the chest.

The other three runners worth mentioning are Narve Nordas, who finished one spot behind Laros in Paris, 2025 world leader Azeddine Habz, and U.S. champ Jonah Koech. Nordas also won a 1500m in 3:30 last week in Berlin, but he hasn’t fared as well on larger stages this season, finishing no higher than third in four DL appearances and getting beaten in kicker’s race by countryman Hakon Berg in the 1500m at his national championship. Habz finished third behind Laros and Nuguse at Pre and has only raced once—at the French championships—since then. Koech was battling an injury before USAs and also hasn’t raced since.

So basically, Laros may not (yet) have shown the highest ceiling of anyone on the starting line, but right now he has the highest floor. Just as importantly, he’s demonstrated he’s running the best of anyone in the mix right now , 18 days out from the first round of racing. If you’re basing your personal odds on resumes alone, Laros isn’t your guy. If you’re betting on potential, Laros is very likely entering his prime after finishing 10th at Worlds as an 18 year old and 6th at the Olympics as a 19 year old. And if you’re looking at recent results, Laros has as strong a claim as anyone on favorite status heading into Tokyo.

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