If Obiri picks up her second win in Central Park this weekend, she’s gotta be the top dog of 2024, right? Boston and NYC champ, plus an Olympic medal? That’s hard to top. But here’s the thing – Obiri is only the 72nd fastest marathoner of the year, and her 2:22:37 from Boston puts her a whopping 12+ minutes behind Ruth Chepngetich’s record-setting run in Chicago. That’s an apples-to-oranges comparison as Boston is a far tougher course (and not even record eligible), but the speed-goggles crew might chafe at the notion that one of the greatest athletic performances in the history of sport doesn’t merit a #1 spot. The main argument against Chepngetich is that her other 2024 marathon didn’t go nearly as well – she only finished 9th in London.

Tola is probably a more cut-and-dry argument because no one else has had a particularly standout year on the men’s side. The world leader is Benson Kipruto, who won Tokyo in 2:02:16 and came back later in the summer to finish third in Paris. But Tola beat him head-to-head in that race, and if they only have one WMM win apiece, tie’s gotta go to the Olympic champ. London winner Alexander Munyao cratered in that race, finishing 21st, and silver medalist Bashir Abdi is toeing the line in NYC but has no other results in 2024. The other two names worth mentioning are John Korir (2:02:44 win in Chicago plus 4th in Boston) and Sisay Lemma, the Boston champ who hasn’t run a fall marathon yet but is likely headed to Valencia, where he’s the reigning champ.

So if Obiri wins in NYC, she’s definitively the top runner of 2024 in our book. If she finishes on the podium but not first, it’s a tougher call, and probably Chepngetich’s brain-breaking run puts her over the edge. If Obiri finishes lower than third, it’s pretty definitively Chepgnetich’s year. On the men’s side, a second Tola win probably puts him atop our informal rankings, but Kipruto fans may want to give him the edge based on time (Tola is definitely not running 2:02 in an unpaced, hilly race). If Abdi flips the script on Tola, it’s hard to say who gets the edge, but if Tola finishes lower than second in that scenario it’s Abdi. And even if Tola gets his second big win of the year, if Lemma manages to run something crazy en route to defending his title in Valencia, he’s part of the conversation as well.

One of the most fun things about comparing the incomparable is it turns into a bit of a Rorschach test for what you, the observer, really care about in the sport of track and field. Is beating the absolute pulp out of a field weightier than winning by a step or two? Does slapping on your supershoes and sucking down a space gel take some of the shine off fast times, even if you run really, really fast? Would you rather win an Olympic medal or Boston?

Winning the New York City Marathon could be a career-defining performance for most athletes, but appreciating the Hellen Obiris and Tamirat Tolas of the world means thinking big picture about what a single win means in the broader context of a long and legendary career. When we start to think about GOAT debates both within and across sports, one day can be transformative but not definitive. And understanding what a win really means makes following the action all the more exciting for the fans.

So whether it’s Obiri, Tola, or someone else entirely who steals the spotlight in New York this weekend, embrace the fun of a good ol’ fashioned sports debate and decide for yourself what really makes someone Number One.

For more of the top stories and analysis from the biggest stories in track and field from the past week, subscribe to The Lap Count newsletter for free. New edition every Wednesday morning at 6:00 a.m. ET.