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Pre-World Championships Mailbag — Let’s Get Hungary!

By Kyle Merber

August 9, 2023

If I was irritated by the slow trickle of news and results last week, this time around I’m lovin’ it. Fresh off a family trip to Ireland, I’m writing this one half-asleep from my couch with my laptop perched on my stomach like an otter. But there’s no rest for the weary, and there’s nobody more weary than an intrepid track newsletter author in the week between trans-Atlantic flights. Let’s get to the mail bag – and seriously, to all who submitted questions, thank you!

The United States didn’t win any medals in the distance events on home soil. Does this team have a chance to pull off a surprise medal that maybe we aren’t expecting?

We have Paul Chelimo, don’t we? So of course there is a chance! Prior to Eugene, the last time that the United States didn’t win a distance medal at a global championship was in 2005 in Helsinki. (And no, the 800m does not count as a distance event in this scenario.) But that stat puts into perspective just how much of an outlier 2022 was despite the home-field advantage and availability of Eugene-made honey.

That said, let’s run through the names on this team that have medaled before: Chelimo and Emma Coburn. We are going to need some young blood to step up!

A fairly obvious hope is in Yared Nuguse, who is ranked second in the world in the 1500. Sinclaire Johnson was 6th in 2022 and Nikki Hiltz, who was a finalist in 2019, beat her at USAs – I don’t think either of them get gold though... Keira D’Amato was 8th last year and recently ran an American record in the half marathon. But if I can insert an athlete you might not expect into this conversation, how about Elise Cranny in the 10,000m.

Athing MuAthing Mu

Johnny Zhang/@jzsnapz

I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on what Athing Mu’s coach said about her maybe choosing not to race at Worlds. What are we supposed to make of this as fans?

Some context for those who missed the LA Times article that included this bombshell, it featured coach Bobby Kersee saying, “It’s in our control if we decide we’re just going to go ahead and train through this year and focus on next year… the next time she gets on the plane it’ll either be on vacation or to Budapest.”

There is a lot to unpack here. First off, I hope Athing goes to Worlds because she is a joy to watch run and she is clearly in great form this summer. But I also hope Athing is okay in general.

This is the complicated part of being a sports fan in 2023. Athlete mental health is at the forefront of all of our minds. But it’s also a professional endeavor and it should still be acceptable to remain critical of performances and decisions when done respectfully.

Now let’s not pretend that two extra weeks of training before taking a vacation in August are really going to prepare an athlete any better physically for the Paris Olympics. If that’s truly the case, then Kersee is doing Athing no favors, especially in the court of public opinion. It is objectively good for the sport to have her winning medals and breaking records.

But it seems like she is struggling with some level of burnout or anxiety and this pretty bizarre statement is an example of a coach trying to protect his athlete. If that’s the case, then I understand. If it’s just a coach and his athlete deciding that the World Championships do not matter – which sounds so insane to even suggest – then I hate this sport.

Jakob IngebrigtsenJakob Ingebrigtsen

Johnny Zhang/@jzsnapz

What would you consider to be the deepest event in the world right now?

Statistically speaking, if you look at the 10th-best performance values in each event on the World Athletics scoring tables then the three deepest would be the M1500, M200, and M100. There might be some male bias there! I don’t think anyone has run fast in the 100m consistently enough to warrant a top-three depth ranking.

By feel, it seems like whoever wins the women’s 100m hurdles will almost be chosen as random as there are so many with the potential to do so. And the sixth-place finisher in the women’s 100m will be by far and away the fastest fifth loser ever, and will likely be cursing themselves for being born in the wrong generation.

I need your help writing a pitch to my friends to sell them on watching track, specifically the World Championships. Could you write me a script?

How you should go about plugging track to your friends depends a lot on what your friends are like. But since I’m so invested in your success, I’ve drafted a few different elevator pitches, based on the types of people you might fraternize with, based on the types of people I fraternize with.

For the aspiring insider…

“The Olympics are next year. I know you love to watch them because everyone loves to watch them. But I’m gonna let you in on something. You know track? It’s huge at the Olympics.

And because I follow it year ‘round, I get more out of the Olympics than you do. I know the players, the rivalries, the stakes. The Olympics are great for a casual viewer. But imagine tuning into the Super Bowl, barely understanding the rules of football, and caring about anything other than the commercials.

The track world champs are this weekend – come over to watch with me and we can be insufferable together for Paris 2024!”

For the fearer of being late to the party…

“Well, those bastards over at Netflix have done it again. From the dangerous minds who brought you that super addictive show about Formula 1 – that has made 1/8th of our friends into armchair experts on the sport overnight – comes the exact same premise, but about track & field.

When [NAME OF FRIEND WHO IS NOW AN F1 GEEK] comes up to you in six months regurgitating talking points straight from the new track show, wouldn’t it be sick to be able to counter with some original ideas of your own?

Track’s world champs are this weekend – come over to watch with me and I can spoon feed you takes about track that I get from my favorite weekly track newsletter.”

For the respectable hedonist…

“Look. Come over. Bring [NAME OF FRIEND WHO’S SYNONYMOUS WITH COUCH-BASED DEBAUCHERY]. I’ve got [EDIBLES/A COUPLE GROWLERS OF A LOCAL IPA].

I’ll put on the track & field world championships. We can watch people jump comically high, run unfathomably fast, and throw heavy metal implements surreal distances.”

Faith KipyegonFaith Kipyegon

Kevin Morris/@KevMoFoto

What race do you predict will be the most exciting to watch this year? I am looking for drama like last year’s men’s 1500 or women’s 10,000m!

The 5000m on both sides is going to be so good. There are eight men who’ve run 12:46 or faster this year and that’s not including the defending champion Jakob Ingebrigtsen. Those dudes just keep full sending it from the start and the prospect of having to outkick a 3:27 guy at the end means they’ll likely do it again.

Then there is the second battle between the current world record holder and the former. What did Letesenbet Gidey learn from her earlier run-in with Faith Kipyegon in Paris? I don’t think a slower pace will help her odds…

Ryan CrouserRyan Crouser

Johnny Zhang/@jzsnapz

If you had to bet your life savings that one athlete (on both sides) is leaving with a gold medal, who are you investing in?

I am sure most people would go ahead and say Mondo Duplantis because at his best he is just so much better than everyone else. Yet he is coming off a rare loss at the Monaco Diamond League so it feels slightly more risky. Instead, I am going with Ryan Crouser, who is undefeated this year. Plus, he has six throws to get one right, whereas in the pole vault three misses and you’re done. Also, the risk of getting injured in the pole vault is infinite.

Applying the same logic to the women’s side then Yulimar Rojas and Val Allman seem like good bets. But then you remember that Faith Kipyegon still exists and she is invincible over 1500 meters.

Are the athletes’ hotel rooms, food, and transportation all paid for by their country? Is it like a village setup similar to the Olympics?

This is on a country to country basis, but everything is fully paid for. It’s not quite a village setup that you’d get in an Olympics or Pan Am games, and it might vary depending on where it’s held. There is a general dining hall that is available to all of the world’s athletes, but then Team USA will cater and provide food at their hotel.

Is the NCAA subsidizing other countries' athlete development? Is this a good move for the US? Or am I just bitter that my home country of France just doesn't seem to be taking full advantage of that sweet American tax-payer money?

In 2022, there were 94 NCAA or former NCAA athletes from other countries, including 19 NCAA champions that competed at Worlds. As you cogently point out, zero of those qualifiers were French. It’s an unbelievable pipeline and development system that is not an advantage unique to American kids. The average college athlete has a better setup both in terms of resources and finances than most professionals.

Ultimately, it’s not the NCAA’s responsibility to worry about whether or not their system is helping to develop USATF or its rivals. They’re completely separate entities, and in many regards… don’t get along very well! Winning medals isn’t exactly a World War II, Rosie the Riveter “We Can Do It!” situation. Look at the conference realignment that happened last week – there’s no loyalty in college sports.

Gabby ThomasGabby Thomas

Johnny Zhang/@jzsnapz

Would you take the over or under of Team USA winning 13 gold medals?

Let’s crunch some numbers. Right now the US has ten athletes who have the world leading mark this year:

Noah Lyles (200), Ryan Crouser (SP), Gabby Thomas (200), Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone (400), Nia Ali (100H), Katie Moon (PV), Maggie Ewen (SP), Val Allman (DT), Brooke Andersen (HT), Anna Hall (Hep)

Then there are five potential relay medals up for grabs, all of which are realistically gold. Who knows if we’ll take the mixed-gender relay seriously, but the US is defending champions in three of them so the math is there.

Yet it is championship season and wins aren’t handed out from the descending order list. There are an additional seven competing Americans who are ranked in the top three of another event. So Team USA’s PERFECT day would be about 22 gold medals, which obviously won’t happen. I will still take the over and say 14.

What sort of goals do people who aren't real medal threats set when making their race plans? Is it a particular time?

This is the dilemma every non-2:03 guy at a World Marathon Major faces. Isn’t that the beautiful thing about running? Goals can exist on a spectrum and as I once famously said to myself after losing a race, but setting a personal best, “You don’t always have to cross the finish line first to win.”

If you didn’t have a clock at the finish line, then most athletes would have a good idea of if they executed well or not. And ultimately that’s what it comes down to – did you get the most out of yourself? There are a few events in particular where anyone besides a select few have a realistic chance to medal. In the distance events, running a personal best is partially up to the gods and most mortals would bleed out if they are the one falling on the proverbial pace sword.

An obvious goal then would be to make the final. To qualify for a global championship and then only have the opportunity to run in front of a less-than-full stadium during a morning session without high-stakes implications is less than satisfying. You want to be there under the lights when the US crowd is wide awake and watching on television.

Plus, finishing in the top 12 qualifies American athletes for the USATF tier program, which is an often overlooked crazy nice benefit of being good at running. In addition to free health insurance, athletes receive an additional $12K stipend (and $6K for their coach), funding for travel, and $2K towards massage/chiro work.

And finally, the best motivation is beating people you don’t like.

Men's 800mMen's 800m

Kevin Morris/@KevMoFoto

What’s the race with the biggest upset potential?

There are so many races that are absolutely wide open. The men’s 100m could see another Marcell Jacobs situation where someone comes out of nowhere. If you are entered in the men’s 800m then you might win. But the biggest upset is theoretically the takedown of one of the “locks” that people see as unbeatable of which there are many.

Despite losing to Marileidy Paulino in Paris, I am sure the betting odds are going to be significantly stacked in Syndey McLaughlin-Levrone’s favor. But because she is arguably the sport’s biggest star, the potential there is the greatest.

The most overlooked potential upset might not be a race, it would be JuVaughn Harrison in the high jump. The former Tiger is undefeated this season and cleared 2.35m to beat Mutaz Barshim in London. The Qatari has won the last four global championships, plus three more silvers dating back to the 2012 Olympic Games. Losing to a guy who was only 9th in 2022 and 7th in 2021 would upset some people – just not Americans.

For more of the top stories and analysis from the biggest stories in track and field from the past week, subscribe to The Lap Count newsletter for free. New edition every Wednesday morning at 6:30 a.m. ET.

Kyle Merber

After hanging up his spikes – but never his running shoes – Kyle pivoted to the media side of things, where he shares his enthusiasm, insights, and experiences with subscribers of The Lap Count newsletter, as well as viewers of CITIUS MAG live shows.