Roughly two years ago in this very newsletter we (okay, it was Kyle) asked in so many words “what’s wrong with the men’s 800m right now?”

The first half of this decade was a strange time for the event. By the late 2010s, David Rudisha—the still-world-record-holder and perhaps the most dominant athlete to ever race the two-lap tango—had been forced out of competition via repeated injury and multiple vehicle accidents. And in his absence, nobody had emerged as his heir apparent.

Kenya’s Emmanuel Korir won 800m gold at the 2020 Olympics, followed by his compatriot Ferguson Rotich and Poland’s Patryck Dobek. All three men enjoyed decently-successful careers, but none came close to capturing total dominance over the event. Perhaps unfairly, given that none of them came within spitting distance of running as fast as Rudisha’s 1:40.91, they also failed to capture the sport’s attention outside of that Olympic cycle. There were dozens of other guys right there with them on the World Athletic toplist, and somebody had to win the medals at that weird, Covid-delayed Games.

This sport is a brutal one when it comes to legacies. You can win Olympic gold and never factor in the “who’s the GOAT?” discussions for more than a passing mention. Plenty have won a global title or two, and wound up just another guy in the sport’s collective memory.

As Kyle observed in 2023, we simply had a lot of guys running the 800m. For a time, there was actually too much parity in the event, and no way for fans to develop storylines in their minds beyond “well, let’s just toss 15 names into a hat and pick one we think could win.”

That began to change shortly after we fired off the newsletter in question. (Editor’s note: based on our NCAA long-shots piece last week, it’s entirely possible that the Lap Count Effect causes the opposite of what we write about to happen.) From a deep pool of guys, a smaller, eight-lane final’s worth of medal contender-types and second-tiers with true spoiler potential have coalesced and reversed the fortunes of the men’s 800m entirely.

The 2024 podium from Paris might still make up the core of this small but elite group: Emmanuel Wanyonyi of Kenya, Canada’s Marco Arop, and to a slightly lesser extent, Algeria’s Djamel Sedjati.

Wanyonyi just split sub-50 just on the heels of the rabbit in Stockholm then hung on to comfortably win in a world-leading time of 1:41.95. In his one showdown against Arop over two laps this year, the tall Canadian took him down, but because Arop has stuck to the Grand Slam circuit, rather than the Diamond League races, we don’t have much of a sample size.

Arop’s season best is about a second and a half slower than Wanyonyi’s, but you could easily make the case that right now it’s actually Arop who’s the man to beat. Arop is 3 for 3 in 800m victories this season, but Wanyonyi is only 2 for 4, and in Rabat lost to two other runners not named Marco.

The fact that there’s a murky debate over the top 800m man in the world is actually fun, rather than sort of confusing and vaguely off putting. The speculation sure isn’t hurt by the fact that the next time we see these two square off may very well be in the finals at Worlds.

But while Wanyonyi and Arop would be your headliners—top billing in big scratchy-looking text like on a Coachella poster—in just slightly smaller font beneath them is another tier of medal hopefuls. Dudes like Sedjati, who hasn’t posted a win this outdoor season but has done enough to demonstrate he’s still got one of the most lethal last-150-meter closes in the business.

Along with him, we have Rabat and Doha DL champ Tshepiso Masalela of Botswana alongside Americans Bryce Hoppel (who’s had a rocky start to his outdoor campaign but tends to peak well and is the seventh-fastest man ever in the event) and Josh Hoey (number three in the world this year by time, and on a historic heater right now). These are the guys who, if everyone’s trajectory holds, could find themselves with medals draped around their necks in Tokyo, too.

Then we have a final bunching of athletes, who feel like longer shots to seize control of the event, but very well could if things shake out just right. We’re talking about France’s Gabriel Tual, Spaniard Mohamed Attoui, Great Britain’s Max Burgin, the resurgent 2019 World champ Donavan Brazier (hot off a negative-split 1:43.81 performance at Portland Track Festival, in his second race in years), plus Algeria’s hard-closing wildcard Slimane Moula.

That’s 10 dudes vying for one of eight lanes at the World Championship final. Drama already! Then when you close your eyes and envision this race taking place, you can see it playing out any number of ways, each of them equal parts exciting and chaotic. Some of the guys we’ve slotted as longer shot have actually beaten guys this year we’ve ranked as likely medalists. And others, like Brazier, have sky-high ceilings but face challenges around simply getting to September in one piece.

It’s easy to imagine Arop and Wanyonyi—each viewing the other as their prime threat—battling for control of the race, winding up in the “Gray Zone,” and effectively serving as rabbits for the rest of the field. Does one of them hold on, going wire-to-wire and giving Rudisha’s record a scare? In this scenario, who goes out with them? Does Brazier fully have his sea legs back by then? Hoey, Masalela, and Tual are rarely shy about sticking their noses into a hot pace. Are the kickers rewarded for their patience and tactical prowess, with the win going to the late-closer who best navigates the carnage over the final 100m?

Realistically, any of these outcomes feels feasible right now. We’ve got some data points on the state of the event right now, but the big picture still feels tantalizingly hazy. Each high quality men’s 800m between now and Tokyo is a must-watch event (or at least a must-re-watch event on YouTube the next day). We’ve come a long way since 2023!