As track and field nuts, our impulse after a thrilling Olympic program is to want more. We’re knocking off midday meetings all throughout August to focus our attention on European Diamond League meets. We’re wearing out the YouTube replay button on some of the Games’ more memorable finals. And of course we’re poring over the results of the World U20 Championship to familiarize ourselves with the next batch of guaranteed Olympic medalists and surefire future superstars.

But how studious do we really need to be? Are the promising young athletes standing atop the U20 podium in Lima, Peru, really the smartest bets to do the same come Los Angeles? If past is prologue, the Paris Olympics should be full of former global junior stars, right? So we looked at every medalist from every event in Paris, then looked up to see what their highest finish was at a U18 or U20 World Championship, if they even competed in one when eligible.

Here’s a summary of our – pushes nerd glasses further up bridge of nose – findings:

– The majority of events did see one or two athletes ascend successfully from the U18/U20 podium to the Olympic equivalent.

– The women’s 3000m steeplechase was the only event in Paris where the podium was comprised solely of past U18/U20 medalists.

– 10 events didn’t feature a single medalist who had won hardware at a U18/U20 World Championship.

– A handful of athletes who medaled in Paris actually medaled at a U18/U20 World Championship in a different event from their now-primary one, like Mary Moraa (third in the 800m in Paris; second in the 400m at the 2017 U18 Championships), Karsten Warholm (second in the 400mH in Paris; winner of the octathlon at the 2013 U18 Championship), and Ryan Crouser (winner of the shot put in Paris; second in the discus at the 2013 U18 Championships).

With all that said, let’s acknowledge the limitations of this exercise.

World Athletics (née IAAF) stopped holding the U18 meet in 2017, so plenty of younger Olympians never had a shot to collect some hardware there. The U20 meet is only held every other year, so there’s a bit of randomness associated with success. The reality is you’re almost certainly going to be a better athlete at 19 than you are when younger, so being a wee 18-year-old in a U20 Championship year puts you at a disadvantage.

Then there’s the matter of who actually goes to these meets. Countries might not send a squad for a variety of reasons, many of them stupid. For plenty of athletes competing in the American collegiate system, qualifying comes after the NCAA season ends, so peaking for it can be tricky. And for some truly prodigious talents, there’s more money to be made by moving to the roads or senior level earlier.

All that said, here’s the real official Lap Count takeaway: medaling at a “youth” championship is a solid, but imperfect, indicator that you’ll be highly successful at the next level, too, barring injury or other catastrophic setback. And when you see somebody really dominating at the U18/U20 level, that’s a promising indicator of future grown up global dominance. Particularly in smaller countries with a strong history of global participation, junior championships may be some rising phenoms’ first chance to even face serious competition – there’s no Foot Locker analogue in Europe or AAU championship in Africa.

While a true track head may want to keep tabs on every finalist from Lima, here are a few athletes who stood out to us as future stars. Is it scientific? No. It’s sports, where a vibe check can mean more than any advanced metric.

– We aren’t exactly going out on a limb when we say that Sembo Almayew of Ethiopia is a burgeoning steeplechase star. She not only won U20s in a championship record; she’s run 9:00.71 and placed fifth at the Olympics this year. Plus, she’s already had a surprisingly long resume, with a world U18 best and a U20 silver medal in 2022.