Way Too Early U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials Predictions

By Kyle Merber

March 29, 2023

Pulled from the March 29, 2023 mailbag edition of The Lap Count – We are only ten months away from the US Olympic Marathon Trials. Who are you picking right now?

I hate being asked to do this right before Boston and London, which would obviously be great indicators to help guide my predictions. I also hate the fact that someone is going to be like, ‘hey Kyle, why didn’t you pick me?’ or will then use this as some sort of bulletin board material.

Like what the hell do I know? I thought I was going to make the Olympics. You’re probably better off if I don’t pick you! My confidence level is extremely low on pulling off the trifecta, but for the guys, I am going to go with:

  • Conner Mantz — Ran 2:08:16 in his Chicago debut and like, wasn’t happy?
  • Scott Fauble — Mr. Consistency (and also in our group chat so I have to…)
  • Futsum Zienasellassie — That sub-15 from 35k to 40k has my attention

(Notes: Health seems to be an issue for Galen Rupp, and I would love to see Ben True finally make the team at 38. Who knows though, maybe Abdi Abdirahman makes his sixth team?)

The women’s picture isn’t much more clear, largely due to the fact that from top to bottom, U.S. women’s marathoning has never been better. That said, here’s my knee-jerk prediction:

  • Emily Sisson — Would you bet against the American record holder?
  • Aliphine Tuliamuk — The defending champion… and her run in NYC off an abbreviated build-up says good things
  • Keira D’Amato — This will be the biggest running-themed Disney movie since McFarland, USA

(Notes: Wait, if you asked me if Emma Bates or Betsy Saina is making the team then I am saying ‘100%, yes’ so the math isn’t mathing for me. It’s not ideal that Keira and Emily both scratched from the London Marathon, but they’re back running.)

Kyle Merber

After hanging up his spikes – but never his running shoes – Kyle pivoted to the media side of things, where he shares his enthusiasm, insights, and experiences with subscribers of The Lap Count newsletter, as well as viewers of CITIUS MAG live shows.