By David Melly
September 3, 2025
There’s a whole bunch of new sheriffs in town.
Over the last nine months, we’ve talked a lot in this newsletter about 2025 being a time of change. But until recently, that change has felt tenuous, hypothetical, or temporary. Because track and field is a sport where the biggest stars can skip out on most of the regular season with no consequences, the Olympic champions can still feel like the presumptive favorites for global gold even as they take breaks, battle injuries, or witness the rise of new stars.
On paper, Ryan Crouser and Yulimar Rojas have their work cut out for them. Neither the world record holder in the men’s shot put nor the women’s triple jump have competed at all this year, and in Rojas’s case her absence from the sport extends back to 2023. How do you call an athlete who has publicly and unambiguously said “I’m hurt, and that’s why you haven’t seen me” a favorite for gold? And yet at the same time, it wouldn’t be surprising to Crouser and Rojas, who each have five global titles, pull a Keely Hodgkinson and return to competition in exactly the same dominant form that they left.
But it’s September now, and for anyone less than a world record holder, it’s hard to extend the benefit of the doubt. In many cases, that’s not solely because a reigning champ has fallen off their throne—it’s because someone else entirely has stepped up and cemented their place as the name to beat.
Last week’s Diamond League final in Zurich, Switzerland, played two important roles in this season’s track and field narrative. The first was giving some athletes—namely Vernon Norwood in the 400m and Brittany Brown in the 200m—a lifeline as they picked up wild-card berths to Tokyo. Even though a similar destiny was not meant to be for others, it was nevertheless very exciting to root for folks like Josh Hoey, Yared Nuguse, Tia Clayton, and Keni Harrison as they took their mulligan and came up short.
The second part of Zurich’s storytelling came from a crop of athletes who emerged from the DL final looking more lethal than ever before. This crew had long ago locked up their entry to Tokyo, and hardcore fans all year have been making the case that they should win gold. Instead, their wins in Zurich made a clear statement with Worlds just around the corner: if you want to win gold, you’ve got to go through me.
Jacory Patterson had never made an U.S. team before 2024, and his indoor campaign ended with a World bronze in the 400m behind his compatriot Chris Bailey. Famously, Patterson started the year pulling double-duty with track workouts and box-stacking at UPS, hardly the resume of a global medal threat (even in our cash-strapped sport). But since the outdoor season began, he’s been on an absolute tear, winning seven of eight total 400ms and clocking two sub-44s, most recently a commanding 43.85 to win in Zurich and officially add Norwood to the 400m roster.
With Olympic champ Quincy Hall out of the picture, Patterson’s biggest competition will likely come from Bailey, the World Indoor champ, and Olympic silver medalist Matthew Hudson-Smith, the only two men to beat Patterson head-to-head this year. But Patterson has won his last three straight duels against Bailey, including at the U.S. Championships and DL final, and thrice gone faster than Hudson-Smith’s 44.10 season’s best, which the Brit ran to beat the Americans at the Pre Classic. Patterson is by no means untouchable, but it’s safe to say that at his first World Championship appearance he’s the betting favorite.
Similarly, U.S. hurdler Cordell Tinch benefits both from his own ascendence and a less-than-ideal season from his primary rivals. Reigning World/Olympic champ Grant Holloway has had a decidedly un-Holloway-like season, and in their last head-to-head meeting in Silesia Tinch beat him 13.03 to 13.10. Tinch then followed up that victory with two consecutive sub-13s, including a 12.92 victory in Zurich, bringing his season total up to three. No one else has more than one, and Holloway’s SB is 13.11.
Tinch is now decidedly in the driver’s seat as he rides a four-race post-USAs win streak into Tokyo, and it also helps that the rest of the field looks as shaky as Holloway. The other two medalists from Paris, American Daniel Roberts and Jamaican Rasheed Broadbell, won’t even be at Worlds, nor will the next most consistent hurdler, Trey Cunningham, who picked a bad day to have a bad day at USAs. The other two sub-13 guys this year are no lock for the podium either. Frenchman Just Kwaou-Mathey has never made a global final before, and while Japan’s Rachid Muratake finished fifth in Paris, he had a disastrous run in Zurich, finishing dead last after clattering multiple hurdles.
We’ve already given Niels Laros a decent bit of shine in this newsletter, and if you’re not already Laros-pilled enough, maybe this week’s CITIUS MAG podcast will help. The main thing that changed from last week is that the Dutchman’s win streak extends by one thanks to a 3:29.20 victory in Zurich. He also reclaimed the national record in the 1500m from his countryman Stefan Nillessen, and Laros has got one less contender to beat since Nuguse won’t be making the trip. Sure, Jakob Ingebrigtsen fans were buoyed this week by the news that he’s entering both the 1500m and 5000m in Tokyo after all, but with the way Laros is racing, even a fully-healthy Ingebrigtsen will have his hands full, should he find the youngster on his shoulder in a déjà vu-inducing position with 150 meters to go.
Not every race resulted in a decisive shift in the new World(s) order, but a few up-and-coming names certainly solidified their case for medal contention, if not a win. Before this year, the names Audrey Werro and Frederik Ruppert would not have rung many bells outside their respective home countries of Switzerland and Germany, but now Werro heads into the 800m rounds with a 1:55.91 PB, a big win over Georgia Hunter Bell, and only one woman decisively ahead of her: Olympic champ Keely Hodgkinson. Similarly, Ruppert has now proven via his second win on the circuit (officially only his first DL victory, as Oslo was a bonus event) that the only guy truly in another class is Olympic champ Soufiane El Bakkali. Let’s not forget, though, that the last time they matched up, Ruppert gave El Bakkali a real run for his money on his home turf in Rabat…
Perhaps most intriguing of all were some events where things seem less certain than ever before. Chase Jackson’s highest heights (farthest fars?) in the shot put have been untouchable this year, but that doesn’t mean that someone like Zurich winner Jessica Schilder or World Indoor champ Sarah Mitton can’t beat her under the right circumstances… Circumstances like what happened in Zurich for Schilder, who took the win in 20.26m to Jackson’s 20.08m, and also nearly happened for Mitton, too, had her 20.67m throw not been later ruled a foul. After recording an undefeated season in 2024, Yaroslava Mahuchikh has now fallen to Aussie Nicola Olyslagers multiple times this year, and it’s tempting to give Olyslagers, who leapt 2.04m in Zurich, the edge for Worlds.
While it isn’t a huge surprise to see Brittany Brown secure her spot in Tokyo by defending her Diamond League crown in the 200m, the event looks murkier than ever before following yesterday’s announcement that Olympic champ Gabby Thomas is out with an Achilles injury. Brown has now beaten two of her three Team USA teammates, Anavia Battle and McKenzie Long, head-to-head, and with question marks still hovering over World champ Shericka Jackson, the battle for gold appears to be between Julien Alfred and Melissa Jefferson-Wooden. After missing the U.S. team by one spot, Brown, who began her season late after undergoing surgical treatment for endometriosis symptoms, looks as good a bet as any for that third podium spot.
Old hats will look at the Zurich results, shake their heads, and sagely proclaim that the more things change; the more they stay the same. And it’s true that it wouldn’t be crazy at all to see the likes of Holloway, Ingebrigtsen, or Mahuchikh board their planes home from Tokyo with another gold in hand, satisfied with a season that didn’t always go well but did end well. The vibes coming out of Zurich are pointing in a decidedly different direction at the moment, however, and it’s now late enough in the season to take these “newcomers” seriously.
David Melly
David began contributing to CITIUS in 2018, and quickly cemented himself as an integral part of the team thanks to his quick wit, hot takes, undying love for the sport and willingness to get yelled at online.
