The 2028 U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials may be less than two years away, but the American marathon landscape is still in flux. The Boston results have only further complicated the question: who are the best American marathoners right now?

The answer comes in the form of our first 2028 U.S. Marathon Power Rankings: a comprehensive early look at who will be in the mix for the LA Olympic team.

Ranking marathon potential two years out is no easy task. How do you measure a proven star against a promising debutant? Do you reward consistency over upside? Recent form over peak performance? What do you do with the runners who’ve shown flashes of brilliance but can’t stay healthy? How much does age on race day factor in?

The list that follows spans Olympians, World Championship team members, and a few track stars who could quickly become a factor over 26.2. Does your favorite make the cut?

Men’s Rankings

15. Emad Bashir-Mohammed – 2:11:24 PB from the 2026 Riyadh Marathon

We had to include at least one name that most readers won’t know. Bashir-Mohammed ran at the University of St. Mary, an NAIA school in Kansas, graduating and debuting in the marathon in 2023 at Chicago (2:17:33). The 23-year-old has since dropped his PB to 2:11:24, finished 10 seconds behind Zouhair Talbi at the 2025 Chicago Half Marathon last summer, and just ran a solid 46:42 at the Cherry Blossom 10 Miler.

14. Daniel Mesfun – 2:08:24 PB from the 2026 Sevilla Marathon

The past two years have seen a career resurrection for Mesfun. He ran 2:10 in 2018 and then didn’t break 2:13 again until going 2:10:56 in Houston last January, then winning the Dublin Marathon in 2:08:51. He also got a slight PR at the Sevilla Marathon in February with a 2:08:24. He’ll be 40 at the Trials, so he’ll be looking to ride the Meb or Abdi trajectory to the team.

13. Haftu Knight – 2:07:38 PB from the 2026 Boston Marathon

The former Texas Longhorn has shown the exact sort of progression you look for in a hopeful U.S. team member, which included a 2:09:38 and 2:11:39 in 2025 before finishing as the sixth American in Boston this weekend. He’ll be 29 at the Trials, entering his marathoning prime at the right time.

12. Wesley Kiptoo – 2:07:55 PB from the 2026 Boston Marathon

Monday’s race was a personal best but not quite aligned with what his ceiling may be as a marathoner, considering that he is in the training group at NAZ Elite that includes Alex Masai (fourth at the 2025 Chicago Marathon) and Mercy Chelangat (fourth at the 2026 Boston Marathon). When he hits it, it could be really good.

11. Hillary Bor – 2:08:40 PB from the 2026 Rotterdam Marathon

Bor had really good fitness heading into his debut at the New York City Marathon last fall but maybe got carried away just after halfway and paid the price as he fell to 12th place in 2:10:47. He just put together a 2:08:40 for 10th place in Rotterdam but was on sub-2:06 pace for a chunk of the race. Though he’ll be 38 on race day, he’s still learning the event.

10. Ethan Shuley – 2:07:14 PB from the 2026 Osaka Marathon

Had we published this list a week ago, Shuley maybe would’ve been higher after his 2:07:14 at the Osaka Marathon took everyone by surprise. Given his injury history, another solid outing in the 2:07 ballpack would do wonders for his prospects.

9. Casey Clinger – 2:08:43 PB from the 2026 Tokyo Marathon

Clinger maybe gets a little bit of a benefit from the company he keeps as a member of the Ed Eyestone training group. Whereas some of the names ahead of him could be looking to hold onto their spots, he’s one with good potential to jump upward soon. Unlike his 2:16:05 debut in Chicago last fall, his 2:08:43 feels more indicative of his potential.

8. Grant Fisher – Never run a marathon

We didn’t place any other track runners who could test the marathon in the coming two years, but the double Olympic bronze medalist has earned a nod. A 1:00:53 half marathon debut in New York was not good by Fisher’s standards. But if it wasn’t enough to delay his marathon curiosity, based on his talent, it would be silly not to put him in the conversation for the Trials. We’ll surely take flak for not putting him higher.

7. Alex Maier – 2:08:33 PB from Düsseldorf 2025

Once Mantz pulled out of the Boston Marathon, Maier was a popular pick for top American. He scared the American record in the half marathon with a 59:23 in Houston and then finished fourth at the NYC Half in 59:51. The DNF in Boston hurts his ranking here but if he can prove he can race well against the top American marathoners in his next one, he can move back up.

6. Joe Klecker – 2:05:56 from Boston 2026

Boston was a big step forward for Klecker in Boston, closing his final mile around 4:39 to break 2:06. He’s yet to realize the world-beating potential some saw in him early, but he’s making progress at a distance many assume will be his best.

5. Ryan Ford – 2:05:46 PB from Boston 2026

It’s a tough call to pick OAC’s best male marathoner, but the current edge may go to the University of Tennessee at Martin alum over the 10,000m Olympian. We’ll weigh Ford’s 2:08:00 in Boston 2025, 2:09:37 in Chicago, and 2:05:46 in Boston a little higher than Klecker’s resume. Boston was the first time the two teammates went head-to-head and Ford got the better of Klecker by 10 seconds.

4. Clayton Young –2:05:41 PB from Boston 2026

11th place overall on paper looks like Young’s worst finish at a World Major since 2022 but he nevertheless got a big PR and finished third American in a deep field. This also came on a shortened build as a result of the worst injury of Young’s career, which forced him to take 16 weeks off. Maintaining healthy training will be key, but over the last three years, Young has been consistently among the top three Americans in each of his marathons and thrives in a championship setting.

3. Charles Hicks – 2:04:35 PB from Boston 2026

Across two marathons, Hicks has gone 2:09:59 for seventh (second American) in New York and 2:04:35, also seventh, also second American, in Boston. One peek at his Strava and you can tell he can handle the training demands to run fast and hold up for the marathon. The former NCAA cross country champion was maybe overlooked coming into Boston but there’s no hiding anymore. At 24 years old, the sky is the limit.

2. Zouhair Talbi – 2:03:45 PB from Boston 2026

Talbi becomes eligible to represent the United States internationally in August 2027 and could be the American record holder by the time the 2028 U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials roll around. 2:03:45 is the fastest marathon ever run by an American citizen and his 2:05:45 to win Houston in January was just as impressive. In Boston, Talbi was unafraid to cover the surges by the East Africans and was rewarded mightily for his bravery.

1. Conner Mantz – 2:04:43 PB, AR from Chicago 2024

No one probably had more FOMO from watching Boston unfold than Mantz. Last year, he parlayed Olympic momentum into an American record in the half marathon (after quickly recovering from injury) in 59:17. He ran two seconds faster at the NYC Half just two months later, finished fourth in Boston in 2:05:08, and broke the American record in 2:04:43 in Chicago. Mantz’s 85% is better than a good chunk of this list, but getting to the start line healthy could be the biggest challenge. To make another team in 2028, he’ll also have to face all the newcomers rising behind him. In their three head-to-head marathon battles, Mantz has the career edge on Talbi 2–1, but the latest version of Talbi that we’re seeing appears to have leveled up. Still, Mantz holds the top spot for now until someone knocks him off.

Just outside the top 15: Galen Rupp, Joel Reichow, Nathan Martin, Biya Simbassa, Andrew Colley, CJ Albertson, and Paul Chelimo.

Women’s Rankings

15. Molly Born – 2:24:10 PB from the 2025 California International Marathon

Her marathoning career started off well with a 2:24:10 debut for the win in Sacramento last December. She was also the winner of the 2026 USATF Half Marathon Championships following the lead car debacle.

14. Emma Bates – 2:22:10 PB from Boston 2023

We’ll hold this spot for Emma Bates until she comes back from maternity leave. In 2025, she put together a pair of 2:25 performances in Boston and Valencia. Getting to the 2028 U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials could also be extra special after she was forced to scratch from the 2024 edition with injuries, where she would’ve been a strong contender to make that team.

13. Erika Kemp – 2:22:56 PB from Houston 2025

After her 2:22:56 breakout in Houston, Kemp was rewarded with a spot on Team USA for the 2025 World Championships. It was a good sign of her potential at the distance. The Tokyo heat got to her and she struggled to a 2:50:35 for 52nd place. She was a late scratch from the Boston Marathon this past weekend, citing “a sudden series of unfortunate events” on Instagram, but the 31-year-old will have a few more cycles to hone her marathoning legs.

12. Natosha Rogers – 2:23:28 PB from Chicago 2025

Rogers started coming into her own as a marathoner in 2025. Ignoring her rough debut at the Trials in 2024, she recalibrated under coach Steve Magness and pulled together a 2:23 performance in Nagoya and then another for the top American honors in Chicago. She also unfortunately scratched from Boston and has not indicated if she will run another marathon this spring.

11. Carrie Ellwood – 2:22:53 PB from Boston 2026

Ellwood took her time getting back to the marathon after running 2:37:54 in New York in 2024 and then the nearly nine-minute PB in Boston on Monday. She was the runner-up at the USATF Half Marathon Championships following the lead car debacle. We’ll have to wait and see how she backs this performance up.

10. Emma Grace Hurley – Yet to make her marathon debut

Fans will surely be hoping Emma Grace Hurley makes her marathon debut at a race this fall. For what it’s worth, she was posting on Instagram about having FOMO from the Boston festivities. She’s primed to be good for the marathon after podium* finishes in the last two USATF Half Marathon Championships and a 50:42 U.S. title over 10 miles this month.

9. Susanna Sullivan – 2:21:56 PB from 2024 Chicago

We’re chalking up the 2:28:35 for 19th place as a tough day at the office for Sullivan in her return to Boston. Her fourth place finish at the World Championships in Tokyo and 2:28:34 in New York (fifth American) off a shortened build-up are stronger indicators of what she can do, especially in championship-style racing under tough conditions.

8. Taylor Roe – Yet to make her marathon debut

Roe could be higher on this list a year from now. We know what coaches Alistair and Amy Cragg achieved in Fiona O’Keeffe’s development as a marathoner, and could see Roe taking similarly well to the distance. We’re already seeing signs of her track speed translating to the half, after going 1:06:20 in Houston and then 1:06:52 in Valencia this year.

7. Amanda Vestri – 2:24:49 PB from Boston 2026

At 26 years old, Vestri is committed to the marathon and is chipping away at progress. She debuted in 2:25:40 for ninth (fourth American and 35 seconds back of Emily Sisson) at the New York City Marathon. In Boston, she was only the eighth American and 15th overall but managed to run 2:24:49.

6. Dakotah Popehn – 2:24:04 PB from Boston 2026

This one might feel high to some folks because recent performances maybe haven’t aligned with the fitness she shows on Strava. 2:24:20 in Chicago last fall (second American) is the closest we’ve seen to the athlete that surprised many for the third place spot at the last Trials and then took 11th at the Paris Olympics.

5. Emily Sisson – 2:18:29 PB, AR from Chicago 2022

We’re ready to put the “she’s a rhythm runner who doesn’t do great on hills” narrative to bed after a solid 2:22:39 for ninth place and third American in Boston. If there’s one person hoping Phoenix’s flat course gets selected for the 2028 Trials, however, it’s Sisson, who could also get a hometown edge from it. Making a third Olympic team isn’t a given but she’s far from done.

4. Annie Frisbie – 2:22:00 PB from Boston 2026

Frisbie is quietly stringing together strong finishes against good competition. She’s now gone back-to-back years as the second American in Boston and then also second in New York last fall. She’s a tough competitor on hilly courses so maybe compared to Sisson’s Phoenix edge, she’d go for St. Louis’s bid, which is not expected to be flat.

3. Weini Kelati – Marathon debut anticipated in 2026

The U.S. half marathon record holder is poised for a good marathon debut potentially this fall. She rarely has a bad day to finish outside the podium against American competition on the roads. If she chooses to make her debut in Chicago, expect a quick time. If she chooses to make her debut in New York, expect her to try and contend with the best to try and mirror something like her former training partner Sharon Lokedi’s 2022 debut there. By 2028, she should have at least two marathons of experience.

2. Jess McClain – 2:20:49 PB from the 2026 Boston Marathon

Right now, she’s stacking consistency as one of the top Americans while racing against her compatriots. In Monday’s race, she threw caution to the [tail]wind and committed to a full send while trying to race the East Africans. It was her best showing against international competition and that’s coming after a seventh-place finish last year in Boston (top American) and then eighth place at the World Championships (second American).

1. Fiona O’Keeffe – 2:22:10 PB from 2024 U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials

Yes, the reigning U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials champion is holding onto the top spot at this time despite scratching from this week’s Boston Marathon due to a hamstring tear. When she’s healthy—which is the key factor before any race of hers—we saw just how much better she can be than the other Americans in Orlando and New York last fall.

Just outside the top 15: Lindsay Flanagan, Keira D’Amato, Ednah Kurgat, Sara Hall, Elena Hayday, Kodi Kleven, and Paige Wood

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