All eyes turn to the London Eye this weekend. Or, more accurately, a few miles northeast, to Queen Elizabeth Park and the city’s Olympic Stadium, where British record holder Josh Kerr will take a much-publicized shot at Hicham El Guerrouj’s world record in the mile.

Kerr and the Brooks camp have dubbed it “Project 222,” circling this date on the calendar months in advance and calling his shot at 3 minutes and 42 seconds. (Not to be pedantic… but technically, Kerr could fall short of 222 and still succeed, as Ej Guerrouj’s world record, which just celebrated its 27th birthday last week, stands at 3:43.13, or 223.13 seconds.)

Kerr has a personal best of 3:45.34, set at the Prefontaine Classic two summers ago. At the same meet nine months earlier, Jakob Ingebrigtsen and Yared Nuguse worked together to give Ej Guerrouj’s mark its closest scare yet, running 3:43.73 and 3:43.97, respectively—the third and fourth fastest marks in history. It was the first time since the record was set that anyone not named Hicham got within even two seconds of the mark.

Since then, Kerr has picked up his second Olympic medal, PRed in the 1500m, and set a world indoor best in the two mile. After winning his second World Indoor title over 3000m this past winter, he’s raced sparingly outdoors but has clocked an outright PB of 1:44.60 in the 800m. All indications suggest that, in theory, Kerr is capable of achieving the goal he’s set for himself, but such an ambitious attempt requires not just ability, but also for circumstances to align favorably.

Just like everyone else this week, we’re asking the same question: “Can he do it?” And frankly, it could go either way.

Why he’ll break the record

• Science has been good to the middle distances: Bicarb, Wavelights, shoe tech, singlets with silly little holes in them… you’ve heard it all before. The net result has been the resetting of eight different world records in men’s and women’s middle-distance events from 2020 onwards. With Emmanuel Wanyonyi finally taking down the 27-year-old 1000m mark last weekend in Monaco, the mile and 1500m records are the last remaining men’s records between 800m and 10,000m that come from the 1990s. No record lasts forever, and eventually El Guerrouj will be bumped from his spot atop the record books just like every man who came before him.
• London has a beautiful evening in the forecast: The one factor meet organizers can’t completely control seems to be agreeing so far, with temperatures in the mid- to high-70s Fahrenheit and a smattering of clouds in the forecast for Saturday afternoon in the UK. Just as crucially, as it stands neither the wind nor the humidity are currently throwing up major red flags either. Part of any successful record attempt is good luck, and so far, the weather gods seem to be on Kerr’s side.
• This is Kerr’s goal race: It’s one thing to ride the high of good mid-season form to a PB, and it’s another to time your peak perfectly for championship season. In a normal year, distance runners rarely get the opportunity to do both at the same time, but this isn’t a normal year. As we’ve said already, the unique nature of the “off year” allows the very kind of risk-taking that makes this brave chase possible.
• Two words—Yared Nuguse: Even the best rabbits in the world can only take you so far, and then you’re stuck doing the hard work up front all alone for the hardest part of the race. Except! Throughout Kerr’s career, he’s been fortunate in many of his best races to be taking on strong challengers who aren’t afraid to lead, from Jakob Ingebrigtsen to Grant Fisher to Yared Nuguse, the American record holder who’s toeing the start line alongside the British headliner. Nuguse hanging onto Kerr’s heels, or even taking the lead himself in the back half, may be just what they both need to dip under the 3:43 barrier.

Why he won’t break the record

• The excitement leads to a pace that’s too hot to handle: It happens to the best of us. The roar of the crowd and the glare of the lights can get in the heads of even the most seasoned professionals, and nervous energy sends a little too much adrenaline coursing through their veins. All of a sudden, the pacer(s) and/or the race leaders are ahead of the Wavelights and the legs go from fresh to cooked a few meters too early. When you’re trying to ride the razor’s edge in pursuit of a historic time, the margin for error is infinitesimally small, which can lead to miscalculations and missteps that throw the whole effort into disarray.
• The rabbits end up hurting more than helping: The converse of rabbits that get overexcited are rabbits that, frankly, don’t get the job done on the day. We’ve all watched a race where a record attempt gets derailed because the pacer is absolutely rigging while doggedly trying to hit their assigned distance. Then they won’t get out of lane one, forcing the runners they’re trying to help to either slow down or swing wide, a tough decision in the moment. Rabbits Brannon Kidder and Žan Rudolf are solid middle-distance runners in their own right, but Kidder’s 1000m PB is 2:17.21 and Rudolf’s is 2:19.03. A kilometer at 3:43.13 pace is 2:18.67, and that won’t come easy, or necessarily evenly paced.
• Kerr picked the wrong Diamond League: Historically, the fastest 1500m/mile tracks in the world are located in Monaco, Eugene, and Rome. (Those Diamond Leagues have already happened already, in case you missed them!) Few fast miles have been run in London’s Olympic Stadium, and the swiftest 1500m being Phanuel Koech’s 3:28.82 winning mark from last year, which stands only 55th on the all-time list. It’s great for the ambiance and the storyline that Kerr wants to break the record in front of a home crowd, but if optimization is the goal, there isn’t a lot of evidence to support the notion that London was the best spot to host this attempt.
• Two words—Yared Nuguse: In order for Josh Kerr to break the world record in the mile, he first must win the race. It’s not totally implausible that Kerr could run faster than 3:43.13 and finish second. Nuguse has a personal best 1.3 seconds faster than Kerr, and he’s been running great all season, picking up two Diamond League victories and another pair of runner-up finishes. Kerr remains the odds-on favorite, but in nine career head-to-head 1500m/mile races, he’s only got a 5-4 advantage against Nuguse, so it’s not like it’s never happened before.

Given how long Kerr, his camp, and London meet organizers have given fans the chance to get excited, expectations will be sky-high. And all parties involved get a lot of credit for choosing to stage this audacious endeavor at a real, sanctioned race with all the history and prestige that comes with it, rather than a glossy brand-controlled time trial. Success is far from guaranteed, but that’s what makes it fun to watch.

For more of the top stories and analysis from the biggest stories in track and field from the past week, subscribe to The Lap Count newsletter for free. New edition every Wednesday morning at 6:00 a.m. ET.