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Noah Lyles, Abdi Nur, ‘Licia Monson, B. Miller

Isaac Updike, Dad Drew Hunter, McKenzie Long

Syd-less Memphis, Alaysha J., Taylor Roe, E. Mackay 

T’Mars doubles, Athing struggles, Meg H. looks strong

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We’d continue contorting athlete names to fit the cadence of Billy Joel’s “We Didn’t Start the Fire,” but it’s a deeply annoying song and reader, you deserve better. However, we needed an intro that hinted at the chaotic mental state we’re in now that the bulk of season’s “last chance” meets are behind us. As we set the discursive table for Eugene, some events are coming into sharper focus, but way more have only grown trickier to get a read on.

Of the three U.S. women who have won global medals in the 800m still actively competing—Athing Mu-Nikolayev, Ajeé Wilson (second-place at the Ed Murphey Classic in 1:59.53 behind Paris Olympics fourth-placer Shafiqua Maloney), and Raevyn Rogers—plus last year’s Paris 800m roster, Nia Akins, Juliette Whittaker, and Allie Wilson, there’s a real possibility none of the six are on the team for Tokyo.

The standard disclaimer applies: count any of them out at your own peril. Rogers and Wilson are enjoying resurgent seasons, having both run 1:58 after not breaking two-minutes last year at all. Mu-Nikolayev appears to be trending in a positive way (she went 2:00.42 at Ed Murphey). But 21 American women have dipped under 2:00 so far in 2025, and a new wave of rising stars—like Meghan Hunter and Maggi Congdon, who went 1-2 at the Sunset Tour in their pro debuts—is beginning to crest.

Not to suggest that the Monaco Diamond League Meet is in any way an American last-chance-style affair, but Noah Lyles made his ostensible season debut there (early season 400m notwithstanding), winning the 200m over rival Letsile Tebogo into a headwind in 19.88. Alright! Lyles is back. Kenny Bednerek never left. Though he’s been awful quiet this season, surely we assume Erriyon Knighton will step up and secure his standard 200m third-place finish? Wrong! Because after a substandard meet at NCAAs, T’Mars McCallum went and ran a world-leading 19.73 at Ed Murphey. (For good measure, he won the 100m, too, in 9.87.)

McKenzie Long similarly popped off a killer 100m-200m double at Ed Murphey, running 10.88 with a healthy tailwind, and posting a valid world #2 mark of 21.93. Between this performance and Melissa Jefferson-Wooden’s season-long 200m breakthrough, we don’t get to coast into USAs talking about the 200m being Gabby Thomas’s to lose. Julien Alfred has put up the fastest 200m in the world this year—21.88—then it’s Long, Thomas, JaMeesia Ford, and Jefferson-Wooden right behind her. The 200m is shaping up to be one of the most exciting races at USAs, and an unfortunate embodiment of the truism that “somebody is gonna miss out on the U.S. team who could definitely be a global medalist.”

Speaking of: with Kenneth Rooks laying an egg in Monaco (8:28.23 for 15th,18 seconds back from compatriot Matt Wilkinson), Isaac Updike being the picture of consistency, and James Corrigan somewhere in the mix, could the reigning Olympic silver medalist miss out on qualification? That’s hardly the only new question looming over a distance event.

Can Alicia Monson qualify for Tokyo? The American record holder raced for the first time since February of 2024 at Sunset, going 15:01.63 for sixth. Is two more weeks of healthy running enough for her to run under the World standard of 14:50 in Eugene, while outdueling the 10 or so other women realistically vying for a podium finish? Could Josette Norris—fresh off a commanding 4:00.10 1500m win in L.A.—make her first outdoor U.S. team in a wide-open 5000m where she’s finally a favorite? It feels insane to ask given the state of the event, but has notorious training super-responder Abdi Nur (13:34.86 to win the Sunset B heat) shown enough to suggest he could contend for his fourth straight U.S. team, knowing he’d likely have to take down one of Grant Fisher, Nico Young, or Graham Blanks, all of whom are on absolute heaters?

With the action in Eugene kicking off on July 31st, some very messy data, performance-wise, and lots of time to overdo it on the analysis, we’re staring down the barrel at Schrodinger’s track meet, where any outcome remains possible, and last week’s sure-thing is now an intriguing mystery.

For more of the top stories and analysis from the biggest stories in track and field from the past week, subscribe to The Lap Count newsletter for free. New edition every Wednesday morning at 6:00 a.m. ET.