The last time the World Cross Country Championships were held in the U.S. was 1992, at Boston’s historic Franklin Park. This Saturday, however, many of the top harriers from around the globe will line up on American soil once again to determine who’s fastest over hill and dale.

Okay, maybe not hill or dale, because the races will take place in exurban Tallahassee, and the spectator-friendly course features manmade, Florida Panhandle-y elements called things like “Alligator Alley” and the “Rollercoaster.” Despite the race requiring relatively light travel for American athletes, a few of Team USA’s top dogs still opted to sit this one out. Such is life for an event sandwiched between the conclusion of a fall marathoning season and the outset of most indoor campaigns. The theoretical beauty of World XC is that it pits the best miler-types against world-beater marathoners, but given its current spot on the calendar, that’s not exactly the case in practice.

But that’s not to say the action in Tallahassee is going to be underwhelming. We’ve still got some truly excellent racing to look forward to just based on the pedigrees of the entrants (in true World Athletics form, entry lists were only posted yesterday), and the fact that cross country and its undulating, mucky terrain tends to flub up descending order-list-based predictions.

One athlete who does tend to come out on top at these things, despite the potential for volatility, is Uganda’s Jacob Kiplimo. Kiplimo is looking for his third consecutive World XC crown, and yeah, is just really good at the whole running thing regardless of footing or distance. If there’s one knock against his threepeat chances, it’s that he has been hyper-focused on the marathon as of late. It feels crazy to pose this question, but does a 2:04:43 showing in Chicago in October help or hurt his case in a 10k race on grass and dirt three months later?

Even if Kiplimo gets beaten to the line, he’s a very likely low stick for a solid Ugandan squad that’ll be looking to stand atop the podium for the first time since 2019. Kenneth Kiprop (ranked #11 per WA in cross country) and Dan Kibet (#12) are likely angling for top-10 finishes, but the absence of Joshua Cheptegei means Uganda’s team chances will hinge on whether or not one of its other, less-established runners can finish ahead of Ethiopian (unlikely) and Kenyan (more likely) athletes with more impressive track credentials.

Between those two perennial powerhouses, Ethiopia is looking stronger coming in. Kenya’s selection event was headlined by a slate of largely unproven-on-the-global stage athletes, with the country’s track and road superstars largely foregoing the chance to compete.

Ethiopia’s squad boasts names like Tadese Worku (a former U20 world champ), Bereket Nega (8th at the U20 World XC race in Bathurst), Biniam Mehary (U20 3000m world record holder), and Berhihu Aregawi (2nd in the 10,000m in Paris). With those four likely comprising Ethiopia’s scoring contingent, they’re looking like the favorites. Even if one or two of these bigger-to-massive names lay an egg, this team’s depth should provide something of an insurance policy—plenty of other countries will have low sticks, but not many others will have enough low sticks to make a splash in the team scores.

The big questions for us will likely be boiled down to “Kenya, Ethiopia, or Uganda for gold?” and “Does Team USA medal?”, but other contenders include Spain—Thierry Ndikumwenayo is very, very good at cross country and Burundi, led by Célestin Ndikumana and Emile Hafashimana. Hell, France, with Jimmy Gressier and Yann Schrub could probably slot into this section, too.

Team USA brought most of the big guns, which is the only reason a medal is even a possibility. On paper it ought to be led by Nico Young and Graham Blanks, but in practice, those two were shown a clean muddy pair of heels by the likes of Parker Wolfe, Rocky Hansen, Wesley Kiptoo, and Ahmed Muhumed. If the two Olympians have leveled up since the U.S. Champs—which were admittedly at an even weirder time on the training calendar for most pros—and the guys who beat them are still running strong, a podium finish isn’t out of the question. But in a race where only four runners score, it’ll take a great day.

The women’s race received its first significant shakeup well before the gun sounded—reigning double champ and legitimate GOAT-candidate Beatrice Chebet will not be racing as she’s pregnant. With no Nadia Battocletti or Faith Kipyegon, either, Burundi’s sole entrant, Francine Niyomukunzi, comes in as the highest ranked athlete actually competing here and should be considered a threat for the solo title.

No matter for Kenya’s team title hopes. Cross country ace Maurine Chebor, former junior star Joyline Chepkemoi (6th in the U20 race in Bathurst), Brenda Kenei (30:29 10k PB), reigning national 5000m champ Rebecca Mwangi, and road superstar Agnes Ngetich look poised to step up, with Ngetich a favorite for the individual title.

Ethiopia has a theoretical low stick of its own in 2023 U20 champ Senayet Getachew, plus plenty of depth in the form of other former U20 studs (Lemlem Nibret, Aleshign Baweke) and proven road warriors like Asayech Ayichew (29:43 10k PB) and Shure Demise (U20 marathon world record holder, and a very cool name). You’ve gotta go back to 2002 to find a result at this meet where Ethiopia and Kenya don’t occupy the top two spots for the women.

Uganda is, once again, a consistent-ish third spot atop the podium. That squad is an interesting one this time around: Rispa Cherop spent her 2025 competing on both the roads and at the World Mountain & Trail Championships; and Uganda’s most accomplished 5000m/10,000m runners, Joy Cheptoyek, and Sarah and Rebecca Chelangat all disappointed at Worlds in Tokyo. We’ll see how the revenge tour goes for the latter, and how much of a benefit mountain running is when racing in a state with a geographic high point just 345 feet above sea level.

The United States squad looks to be led by Weini Kelati, who has finished as high as 15th at World XC. Katie Izzo (perhaps the American pro who spends the most time annually racing cross country), Ednah Kurgat (has finished 18th at World XC), and Karissa Schweizer finished behind Kelati at the U.S. Champs, and if nothing too wild happens (hardly a guarantee) should make up Team USA’s scoring four. That’s a solid squad, but one that will require a little bit of Tallahassee Magic to score a podium finish.

As for the mixed-gender relay? Well, there are almost too many variables for us to even begin to prognosticate. Hand-offs? By athletes who, for the most part, have likely not held a baton in over a calendar year? On a cross country course? Over a distance most of them have only raced once in their life? C’mon now.

The starriest lineup is Australia, featuring Olli Hoare, Linden Hall, and Jessica Hull, all well-credentialed internationally over 1500m. But Kenya just always seems to play on another level at events like this, and despite World 1500m bronze medalist Reynold Cheruiyot being the only truly big name, it feels wrong to bet against them. Thanks to studs like Ethan Strand and Sage Hurta-Klecker signing up, it’s feels reasonable to put the American medal over/under at 1.5 across the senior races and the relay, and if two of those three squads really do podium, that’s a pretty great weekend.

The fact that so much of this championship is hard to predict makes everything feel very authentically cross-country. The sloppier the conditions and stranger the outcome, the more racing on grass continues to feel like a distinct, interesting subset of the broader sport, and that alone makes World XC worth tuning into.

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