As — *adjusts tie and unmutes on Zoom* — Q1 wraps up, there are finally metrics and data points around which we can make predictions for the outdoor season. In the sport of athletics, recency matters. We constantly ask “what have you done for us lately” because if you’re not throwing down a world class performance at least once a month, then how are we supposed to know you still got it?

That’s great news for us. Because the start to the year really rewrote the history books, with somewhere between 7-10 world records being broken… depending on your interpretation of various arcane World Athletics criteria.

• Josh Hoey, 600m (1:12.84)*
• Josh Hoey, 800m (1:42.50)
• Khaleb McRae, 400m (44.52)**
• Mondo Duplantis, Pole Vault (6.31m)
• Simon Ehammer, Heptathlon (6670 pts)
• Atlanta Track Club, 4x800m (7:10.29)
• Keely Hodgkinson, 800m (1:54.87)
• Hobbs Kessler, 2000m (4:48.79)
• Jacob Kiplimo, Half Marathon (57:20)***
• Toshikazu Yamanishi, Half Marathon Walk (1:20:34)

*Run in December 2025

**Christopher Morales-Williams ran faster in 2024

***He has gone faster, but there was a car in the way

This all should set us up for a great outdoor season, which, although there are no Olympics or World Championships, will still feature plenty of good action across Diamond Leagues, Europeans, Commonwealth Games, and World Ultimate Championships. Taking the information that we do have, let’s set up some of the main storylines and trends that we’ll be paying attention to heading into the spring.

Slow races are (hopefully) back, baby!

Maybe we are just controversially wishing this one into existence, but the U.S. and World Indoor Championships were headlined by tactical races that felt like a blast from the past. Mariano Garcia’s 1500m win from the front in 3:39 could be a preview of what the world may look like if Jakob Ingebrigtsen doesn’t return to full health soon, and the women’s 3000m saw Nadia Battocletti break the tape by dipping a few seconds beneath nine minutes. Just like the bagginess of your jeans, the fashions of racing is cyclical!

When will everyone race each other?

It’s normal indoors to see athletes choose to focus on races that are close by. Whether you pick to run in Millrose or Lieven likely depends on whether chocolate croissants are considered a light snack or a balanced breakfast in your hometown. In athlete interviews throughout the season, there has been no alignment on what matters most, with a variety of different races being mentioned as what stars are peaking for. It’s likely that many of the top matchups that we hope to see simply won’t happen, with stars missing each other like two planes on trans-Atlantic flights. We are labeling the hierarchy of importance an athlete assigns to different meets their individual “Title Pyramid.” What’s worth more: Europeans or Commonwealth? A World Ultimate Championship or a world record attempt?

(HORNS PLAYING) THE CHANGING OF THE GUARDS!

If there has been one constant the last decade it has been Noah Lyles. He may not have run faster than Usain Bolt, but the showman accomplished something that no one else ever has: nine straight years of sub-20 second 200m races. And although he is “only” 28 years old, there is a new kid on the block in his own training group who is hungry, unafraid, and now has a 60m World Championship under his belt. But this isn’t just about Noah or Jordan Anthony. It’s about the generation of Grant Holloway, Karsten Warholm, Kenny Bednarek, Shericka Jackson, Marileidy Paulino, etc., and other stalwarts who have consistently been on the podium. Before we know it, the 21-year-olds are going to be in their prime and others will be nicknamed “Unc”.

The roads are calling—who will pick up the phone?

Without a World or Olympic standard to hit, the fields at the TEN were not quite as deep this year. And for long distance haulers who enjoy grinding out endless miles, the 2026 season presents the opportunity of moving more permanently to the roads. We saw Grant Fisher test things out at the NYC Half Marathon and we know he’ll come back. But will Yomif Kejelcha ever return to the track after his debut in London? Is the Selemon Barega, Joshua Cheptegei, Jacob Kiplimo era officially over? Ejgayehu Taye got a taste in Chicago and even Faith Kipyegon stepped onto the roads to debut a 10K! Imagine the enticing prize money next year in London if 100,000 people are paying £225 to enter…

Anti-American sentiment could set a broader tone

Are we the baddies? Team USA is coming off the high of 26 medals at the 2025 World Championships and the low of a failed attempt at creating a disruptive domestic circuit. While Europeans throw parades for their heroes, most Americans couldn’t name a single track athlete that hasn’t been prominently featured in a reality show. The decision by USATF to snub the global community of a full roster at World Relays wasn’t well received, and now we are getting extra entries into the World Road Running Championships after cancelling the edition that was supposed to be ours. Meanwhile, American athletes will continue complaining about having to fly overseas all summer but also grouse about taking a connecting flight into Eugene. And don’t get the rest of the world started on what we’ve done to gas prices… If Duke’s catastrophic collapse in the Elite Eight last weekend taught us anything, it’s that rooting for the downfall of a heavy favorite is still very fun.

So buckle up, track fans, and get ready for a season of outdoor racing set by indoor expectations. Should be fun!

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